中文
By Nikola Mikovic
Lead: Facing escalating tensions with Ukraine, Lukashenko is looking to Beijing as a steady partner, building on years of growing trade and investment.
As the Ukraine crisis threatens to escalate, Belarus is seeking to strengthen ties with China. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko's recent visit to Beijing came at a time of growing tensions surrounding his country. Can Minsk, and to what extent, count on China's support?
On June 19, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky issued an ultimatum to Lukashenko demanding that Minsk remove Russian signal relay equipment installed on communications towers in regions bordering Ukraine.
"I think a week is enough for Lukashenko to do that. If he doesn't do it, we will," Zelensky said.
Five days later, on June 24, the Ukrainian leader said communications equipment allegedly used to support Russian drone strikes from Belarusian territory had stopped operating. He provided no evidence to support the claim.
It remains unclear whether the equipment was ever installed, since its existence could not be independently verified. Still, Zelensky's harsh rhetoric appears to have raised tension in the region. In the event of a spillover of the Ukraine crisis into Belarus, the Ukrainian Armed Forces, numbering around 1 million personnel, would pose a serious threat to the neighboring country, whose military is estimated at only 60,000 soldiers.
On June 26, Lukashenko traveled to Russia to hold talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Details of their talks were not fully disclosed, but the Kremlin said they discussed "regional security," among other topics, suggesting Zelensky's threats were almost certainly on the agenda. Following his meeting with Putin, Belarusian sources announced that Lukashenko did not plan to return to Minsk but would instead travel to Asia, visiting three countries.
His first stop was Beijing, where he met Chinese President Xi Jinping. The choice of China as his first destination was unlikely to be a coincidence. The two countries are all-weather comprehensive strategic partners and share closely aligned political interests.
"China supports Belarus in safeguarding its national sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity, and in pursuing a development path that suits its own national conditions," Xi told Lukashenko on June 29.
This is the message the Belarusian public undoubtedly wanted to hear, given ongoing tension with Ukraine. But equally important for Minsk is the continued growth of economic ties with China.
Xi stated that China and Belarus should mobilize resources from various sectors to advance Belt and Road cooperation, a clear indication of Beijing's plans to deepen economic ties with the Eastern European country. His comment that the two nations should enhance coordination and cooperation within multilateral frameworks to "serve as a stabilizing force in a turbulent world" was another demonstration of their close political ties.
"We constantly exchange views with you on the international agenda and on the situation in the region. I keep you regularly informed about this," Lukashenko told his host.
The statement suggests that the Ukraine crisis may have been discussed during the meeting. As a major country, China is closely following the situation in Eastern Europe. In 2023, Beijing proposed a 12-point position paper on the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis and has repeatedly said Moscow and Kyiv should end hostilities through dialogue and negotiation.
Notably, China has a consistent and clear position on the Ukraine crisis, holding that dialogue and negotiation are the only viable way out of the crisis. It has called upon relevant parties to follow the principles of no expansion of the battlefield, no escalation of fighting and no provocation by any party, facilitate the de-escalation of the situation and accumulate conditions for the political settlement of the crisis.
Lukashenko appears to share that approach to the crisis, which has so far claimed hundreds of thousands of lives. On June 15, he said victory on the battlefield was unrealistic for both sides, adding that they must compromise to end the fighting.
"Today, we need to use any steps to reach a peaceful agreement through compromises," he stressed.
China and Belarus appear aligned on resolving the Ukraine crisis through diplomacy rather than confrontation. As responsible actors, they could play a constructive role in facilitating peace talks and providing necessary assistance for a political settlement.
For Minsk, economic prosperity remains the priority. To achieve economic growth, Belarus has increasingly looked to China, one of its key partners.
Xi expressed China's willingness to continue to offer assistance within its capacity for the development of Belarus during the recent meeting.
According to official statistics, trade between China and Belarus reached a record $8.86 billion in 2025, marking a 5.5% year-on-year increase. Over the past several years, Belarus has implemented 27 China-supported projects involving more than $5 billion in total financing. Lukashenko likely seeks to secure more business and investment agreements with Beijing, as Belarus sees China, along with Russia, as a key market for its export-oriented economy.
Besides Russia, Belarus continues developing closer economic ties not only with China but also with other global and regional actors. The strategy is part of Lukashenko's well-known "multi-vector" foreign policy, which he successfully pursued until 2020.
Following mass protests that year, he became more dependent on Moscow. But after the Ukraine crisis escalated in 2022, he began seeking to revive his "multi-vector" approach. For Belarus, this means deepening engagement with Beijing is not a substitute for its security reliance on Moscow but a parallel track aimed at diversifying economic opportunities and reducing vulnerability to external pressure.
Still, with China remaining Belarus's major economic partner in Asia, Minsk is likely to continue developing economic relations with Beijing in hopes of attracting more Chinese investment. Investment, however, depends on stability, since businesses tend to avoid uncertainty. That explains why both Minsk and Beijing constantly emphasize a peaceful settlement of the Ukraine crisis and have no interest in its spillover into Belarus.
Nikola Mikovic is a freelance journalist in Serbia, covering mostly Russian, Ukrainian and Belarusian foreign policy issues.
