中文
By Moulik Jahan
Lead: Beijing has remained composed amid escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, insulated by years of investment in renewable energy, pipeline diversification and strategic petroleum reserves.
The near standstill of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz amid escalating tensions among the United States, Israel and Iran has once again exposed a structural vulnerability in the global energy system. For decades, this narrow maritime corridor, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil trade flows, has symbolized the world's dependence on geopolitically fragile supply routes. Any sustained disruption is therefore not merely a regional concern, but a systemic global risk.
Yet China's response to the latest crisis has been notably calm, rational and measured. Beijing has urged parties to the conflict to immediately cease military operations and prevent the situation from becoming complete chaos. It has called for dialogue and negotiation and resolving differences through political and diplomatic means, and made it clear that the safety of shipping lanes should not be interrupted.
Rather than amplifying market anxiety, Beijing has emphasized four consistent priorities: opposition to military escalation, commitment to diplomatic solutions, safeguarding global economic stability, and strengthening energy security through prioritization and cooperation — particularly in green and new energy sectors.
In earlier decades, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz would have triggered acute concern in Beijing, given the country's heavy reliance on crude imports passing through the region. Today, while the Middle East remains important, China's vulnerability has been significantly reduced through diversification, technological advancement and structural energy transformation. Its exposure has been diluted by electrification, efficiency gains and the rapid scaling of renewable energy.
This composure reflects not short-term tactical restraint, but a profound transformation in China's energy system and a fundamentally pragmatic philosophy of energy security. China's calm is not accidental. It is the result of a gradual decoupling from traditional fossil fuel chokepoints, enabled by an unprecedented expansion of green and new energy. This structural shift is often overlooked in conventional Western narratives, which tend to interpret China's restraint primarily through a diplomatic lens. In reality, it is rooted in successful long-term strategic planning.
Over the past decade, China has undertaken what is arguably the most comprehensive energy transition in modern history. According to the International Energy Agency, the country accounted for more than 40% of global renewable capacity additions between 2019 and 2024. In 2025 alone, China added more renewable capacity than the rest of the world combined. By 2028, it is expected to account for nearly 60% of new global renewable installations.
By the end of March 2025, China's wind and solar capacity had reached 1,482 gigawatts, surpassing fossil fuel-based thermal power for the first time. This figure surpasses the combined renewable capacity of many developed economies, pointing to a structural shift rather than incremental growth. Non-fossil sources now contribute around 21.7% of China's primary energy consumption, a share that continues to rise steadily. Under the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030), this is projected to reach approximately 25% by 2030, with a longer-term goal of around 80% by 2060 under the carbon neutrality framework.
More fundamentally, China is reshaping the basis of its energy demand. In transport, historically a pillar of oil consumption, the rapid expansion of new energy vehicles (NEVs) is transforming consumption patterns. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers projects NEV sales to reach 19 million units in 2026, marking a 15.2% year-on-year increase. Each incremental rise in electrification structurally reduces oil demand growth, contributing to expectations that China's oil demand will plateau between 2025 and 2030.
At the same time, industrial transformation is accelerating. The expansion of ultra-high voltage transmission networks enables renewable energy generated in western regions to power industrial hubs in the east, reducing reliance on fossil-based inputs. Peaceful and civilian nuclear energy development, alongside electrification across key sectors, further reinforces this transition toward a cleaner and more resilient energy structure.
These developments carry significant implications. The Strait of Hormuz, while still important, is no longer the singular pressure point it once represented. China's measured response to the current crisis reflects this evolving reality. The underlying message is clear: lasting energy security stems not from militarily controlling chokepoints, but from advancing green transformation. China pairs domestic energy transformation with peaceful global engagement and positions dialogue and cooperation as the cornerstone of conflict resolution and stability in an era of uncertainty.
Beijing's long-standing advocacy for "common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security" finds concrete expression in this approach. By investing in renewables, China is not only addressing climate challenges but also reducing the geopolitical leverage historically associated with fossil fuel supply chains. Each additional gigawatt of renewable capacity represents a step toward insulating the economy from external shocks.
Importantly, China has not abandoned traditional safeguards. China's energy transformation employs an "establish the new before abolishing the old" strategy, rapidly scaling renewables while retaining coal power for grid stability and security. In 2025, China's raw coal production from industrial enterprises above the designated size reached 4.83 billion tons, and the thermal power generation amounted to approximately 6.3 trillion kWh.
As the world's largest crude oil importer, it has systematically diversified its supply network. Russia has emerged as its largest supplier, accounting for approximately 20%-22% of imports in 2024, much of it delivered through pipelines and northern routes that bypass Hormuz.
Pipeline infrastructure has become a central pillar of resilience. The Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean oil pipeline and other China-Russia pipelines together deliver over 2.17 million barrels per day into China. Gazprom supplies natural gas via the 3,000-kilometer Power of Siberia pipeline under a 30-year, $400 billion deal, with talks ongoing for Power of Siberia 2 to deliver 50 billion cubic meters annually through Mongolia. The China-Central Asia gas pipeline network supplies more than 60 billion cubic meters annually, further reducing dependence on maritime LNG shipments. The China-Myanmar oil and gas pipelines provide an additional bypass route from the Indian Ocean to southwestern China.
Beyond regional diversification, China has expanded imports from countries such as Brazil, Angola and Canada, further diluting reliance on any single source or route. Recent agreements, including a strategic energy cooperation memorandum with Canada, highlight a continued commitment to broadening partnerships across both conventional and clean energy sectors.
Strategic petroleum reserves provide another layer of security. Estimates from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies indicate that China's combined government and commercial reserves, totaling between 1.1 and 1.3 billion barrels, offer approximately 110 to 140 days of import cover. The expansion of strategic petroleum reserves — including the addition of 11 new reserve sites across 2025 and 2026, as reported by Reuters — underscores a forward-looking approach to risk management. However, unlike in the past, stockpiling is no longer the cornerstone of strategy; it is a complement to a broader transformation in the energy system.
This dual structure — green expansion alongside diversified supply routes and reserves — helps explain Beijing's calibrated response to the Hormuz disruption, allowing China to avoid reactionary policies such as panic buying or confrontational rhetoric. Instead, Beijing positions itself as a stabilizing force, advocating restraint while maintaining domestic resilience.
The global implications of this shift are far-reaching.
First, China's experience challenges the traditional notion that energy security is primarily about securing fossil fuel supplies and protecting transport routes. In an era of accelerating energy transition, resilience increasingly depends on reducing dependency. Countries that invest in diversified and renewable energy systems are inherently less exposed to geopolitical shocks.
Second, China's approach offers an alternative to militarized energy governance. Repeated disruptions in the Middle East have exposed the limitations of security frameworks based on deterrence and alliance politics. By contrast, China emphasizes development, infrastructure and technological transformation, addressing the root causes of vulnerability rather than merely managing its symptoms.
Third, the current crisis may further accelerate global energy transition trends. Historically, periods of oil price volatility have driven innovation and investment in alternatives. With crude prices experiencing upward pressure amid supply concerns, the economic case for renewables becomes even stronger. In this sense, geopolitical instability may paradoxically reinforce the logic of green transformation.
At the same time, China's role in stabilizing global supply chains remains significant. As a major trading partner to more than 150 countries and regions, it contributes to cushioning external shocks through long-term supply arrangements, infrastructure investment and industrial cooperation. These efforts help mitigate inflationary pressures and support economic stability, particularly in developing economies.
It would be inaccurate, however, to suggest that China is immune to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil remains a substantial component of its energy mix, and the Middle East continues to be an important supplier. The key difference lies in flexibility. China today possesses more options, more buffers and greater strategic depth. Its response is therefore measured not because risks are absent, but because resilience has been systematically strengthened.
China's energy transition does not eliminate these risks overnight, but it steadily reduces them by integrating green development with long-term strategic planning. In doing so, it is redefining the concept of energy security for the 21st century.
Beijing's calm response reflects not detachment, but transformation. The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical artery of the old energy order, but the current crisis underscores its fragility. China's measured approach, grounded in structural change and guided by a broader vision of global cooperation, offers not only national resilience but a constructive contribution to global energy stability.
Moulik Jahan is a Bangladeshi independent researcher, freelance columnist and strategic and security affairs analyst.
