中文
By Nikola Mikovic
Lead: As the Strait of Hormuz grinds to a halt and oil markets reel, a weakened Trump is asking Beijing to help clean up a crisis of his own making.
Following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, and Tehran's subsequent retaliation, the Strait of Hormuz is experiencing a dramatic slowdown in shipping activity. The global economy is already facing mounting pressure, with oil prices having surged significantly. But how does this affect China, widely seen as the “world's factory,” whose industrial engine depends on oil shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz?
When U.S. President Donald Trump launched a "special military operation" in Venezuela that resulted in the kidnapping of the country's president, Nicolas Maduro, some Western media were quick to portray China as the "major loser" of Washington's move. In their view, now that Washington has established control over the Latin American nation's oil, it is China that will suffer, as it will no longer be able to rely on Venezuelan supplies.
In reality, Beijing was never heavily dependent on oil from Venezuela. According to China's General Administration of Customs, the South American state is not even among the top suppliers of crude oil to China. Over the years, China has significantly diversified its oil imports, which is why market disruptions are unlikely to cause as severe problems for its economy as they might for other actors — particularly the European Union.
Although Middle Eastern producers view China as one of their major export destinations, the Chinese economy can almost certainly weather regional supply shocks better than many other importers. Unlike the EU, which has shut the door on energy cooperation with Moscow, China has expanded its energy ties with Russia — one of the largest oil producers in the world — as well as with other oil exporters all over the globe.
But beyond expanding alternative supply relationships, Beijing has been building strategic reserves, helping to insulate its economy from severe disruptions in global energy markets. More importantly, over the years, China has developed its green energy sector to such an extent that its economy and households can increasingly rely on renewable electricity, reducing their dependence on fossil fuels. Reports suggest that China now installs more solar panels annually than the rest of the world combined, and twice as much solar each year as Germany — the EU's largest economy — has ever installed.
Its green energy achievements, along with the diversification of oil imports, could be among the reasons for Beijing's measured reaction to the U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran. Another very important Chinese advantage over the West is that it can still rely on Middle Eastern oil. Although the Strait of Hormuz remains de facto closed, Tehran allows Chinese vessels to transit.
"The Strait of Hormuz is open, it is only closed to the tankers and ships belonging to our enemies, to those who are attacking us and their allies. Others are free to pass," Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said.
Thus, Beijing can still import oil from the Middle East, although, as a result of the conflict, not in the same volumes as before. Fully aware that the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz affects the whole world, including the United States itself, Trump is now seeking China's help to solve the problem he created.
Initially, he aimed to conduct a quick regime-change operation and establish control over Iranian oil as he did with Venezuela. But after the blitzkrieg failed, the situation became more complicated for Washington.
The U.S. and Israel seem to be on their own in their Iran adventure. Washington's allies openly refuse to get involved in Trump's Middle East endeavor. It is difficult for the U.S. to find countries willing to send ships to attempt to unblock the Strait of Hormuz, as they recognize that such an operation would be a suicide mission. That is why Trump expects China to pressure Tehran to ease restrictions on shipping and ensure the free flow of oil through the strategic waterway.
But why would Beijing help Trump, who undoubtedly aimed to resolve the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict before his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, scheduled for late March, so that he could negotiate with his counterpart from a position of strength? Now that he is faced with a debacle in Iran, Trump reportedly aims to postpone his meeting with Xi. But even if Washington and Beijing agree to reschedule the summit, Trump is unlikely to be in a stronger position in the future.
Iran proved to be more resilient than many in Washington and Tel Aviv had anticipated. Despite daily U.S. and Israeli missile strikes and bombardments, Tehran does not seem willing to surrender. The Islamic Republic, according to the country's Foreign Ministry Spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei, is determined to defend itself against U.S. and Israeli aggression "as long as it takes."
Such an approach puts Trump in a very difficult position. The U.S. is unlikely to achieve any of its strategic goals in Iran without forcing a regime change. To do that, it would need to deploy a massive number of ground troops, yet even then, the outcome of such an operation would remain highly uncertain.
Policymakers in Washington know that a potential, although at this point not very probable, invasion of Iran would be a highly unpopular move. That is why they are looking for a way to end the conflict, even with the help of China — a country they have repeatedly labeled their "major adversary." These efforts highlight Trump's weakness, underscoring his inability to resolve the crisis without external support.
His Iran adventure has once again shown the truth of the saying often attributed to Gabriel Garcia Marquez, the Colombian novelist, journalist, and one of the most influential writers of the 20th century: "It is easier to start a war than to end it."
For Trump, the Iran operation represents a "suitcase without a handle" — difficult to carry, yet not easy to abandon. If he simply ends the war and withdraws without achieving tangible results, Republicans will certainly suffer in the midterm elections. If he continues the conflict, the U.S. risks becoming even more bogged down in Iran, facing prolonged military engagement and mounting domestic costs.
Under such circumstances, Trump does not seem to be in a position to urge China to take any action in Iran. However, China has always been working in its own way for peace and stability in the region. As Ambassador Fu Cong, permanent representative of China to the United Nations, said on March 18, the entire Middle East is being pushed toward a dangerous abyss, and China expresses deep concern over this. He stressed that a continued and protracted war will only bring more suffering to the local people and have a huge negative impact on the regional and global economy. He indicated that China is willing to continue to play a constructive role in striving for peace, and called for an immediate ceasefire and end to hostilities to prevent further spread of the war. Fu has also urged a swift return to dialogue and negotiation.
China's top diplomat Wang Yi said on the same day during talks in Beijing with Khaldoon Khalifa Al Mubarak, special envoy of the president of the UAE to China, that the war should never have happened and must not be allowed to continue, warning that further fighting would only lead to greater casualties and losses. He stated that China condemned attacks on civilians and civilian facilities and would continue to work for an end to the fighting, with the aim of restoring peace and stability in the Middle East as soon as possible.
Nikola Mikovic is a Serbia-based freelance journalist and political analyst.
