中文
By Ong Tee Keat
Lead: At a moment of global flux, Beijing's long-term planning model offers a counterpoint to the reactive short-termism and ideological protectionism increasingly defining Western economic policy.
Year after year, global attention — particularly that of the collective West — remains fixated on China's "two sessions." The term refers to the annual convening of the National People's Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), which serves as the primary window into China's trajectory of statecraft.
Yet this interest is rarely devoid of ideological bias, and 2026 is no exception. While Western media remains glued to the proceedings, the emblematic dismissal of the Chinese legislature as a mere "rubber stamp" persists, willfully ignoring the country's unique model of consultative democracy and overlooking the distinctive characteristics of China's political system. That said, the "two sessions" remain a critical platform through which China charts its national development agenda and signals its strategic priorities to the world.
This year, the "two sessions" arrive at an extraordinary juncture. The world is caught in a state of profound flux, characterized by unpredictability induced by shifting trade barriers and heightened by recent kinetic strikes in the Middle East. As the global community reels from such volatility, China's decision to set a GDP growth target of 4.5-5% for 2026 stands out. This is not merely an ambitious economic benchmark dwarfing those of other major economies; it is a confident forecast rooted in the resilience of the recent past.
The jaundiced view of China's ambitions has once again kept cynics busy, labeling this target an optimistic "tall order." They point to a global growth rate subdued at around 3% amid prevailing economic fragmentation. However, China's economic trajectory over the past few years provides context for this optimism. In 2025, the country's GDP grew by 5%, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan. Throughout the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-2025), an average annual growth rate of 5.4% further positioned China as the world's largest economic engine, contributing approximately 30% to global growth.
An aerial drone photo taken on April 25, 2025 shows a cargo ship navigating at Tianjin Port in north China's Tianjin. [Photo by Zhao Zishuo/Xinhua]
This year marks the inauguration of China's 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030). The blueprint is poised to set the stage for economic statecraft over the next five years. More significantly, it lays the groundwork for achieving a long-term national objective: doubling China's 2020 per capita GDP by 2035, thereby advancing the goal of becoming a moderately developed country.
Unlike the short-term policy cycles often driven by electoral politics in many Western countries, China's five-year plans represent a governance model grounded in long-term planning, policy continuity and strategic predictability — qualities that often elude Western critics.
In pursuing a modernization path tailored to its population of 1.4 billion, China has consistently positioned itself as a prepared nation, anticipating any exigencies and contingencies. Ensuring security in food, energy and essential resources is a key priority central to the 15th Five-Year Plan. It targets an increase in grain production capacity to 725 million metric tons and a rise in energy production capacity equivalent to 5.8 billion metric tons of standard coal. Such measures reflect China's strategic emphasis on resilience and self-sufficiency in an increasingly unpredictable global environment.
Equally important is the modernization of China's industrial system. The 15th Five-Year Plan places advanced manufacturing at the core of economic transformation while promoting the development of new quality productive forces underpinning innovation-led development. This paradigm aligns with China's broader goal of strengthening self-reliance in science and technology.
Alongside this, nationwide R&D spending has increased by at least 7% annually since the inception of the previous five-year plan. This preparedness allows China to spearhead homegrown innovation as a hedge against the threat of technological decoupling or de-risking initiated by the West under the pretext of security concerns.
Presented at the "two sessions", the 2026 Government Work Report unambiguously pledges to "deliver advances in original innovation and breakthroughs in core technologies." Under this framework, the value weight of core digital economy industries is set to rise to 12.5% of GDP. This signifies the growing importance of new economic drivers, notably the digital economy, which will leave significant footprints across global partnerships.
This photo taken on Sept. 17, 2025 shows a view of Nanning International Convention and Exhibition Center in Nanning, capital of south China's Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The 22nd China-ASEAN Expo and the China-ASEAN Business and Investment Summit kicked off here on Wednesday. [Photo by Cao Yiming/Xinhua]
In this context, the burgeoning China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA) 3.0 is a clear case in point, with digital cooperation and green transformation set to dominate the China-ASEAN economic partnership.
Like its predecessors, the 15th Five-Year Plan demonstrates forward-looking strategic thinking. It boosts confidence in China's development prospects while unlocking predictable market opportunities and shared dividends for partner countries, notably emerging economies from the Global South that aspire to benefit from expanded trade, investment and development cooperation with China.
While the West continues to trumpet platitudes regarding "China overcapacity" or the "China shock" in an attempt to alienate the world's second-largest economy from the global majority, the latter remains committed to a more egalitarian, multi-centric order. China's vision of building a community of a shared future for humanity resonates strongly with this aspiration. It provides the moral leadership necessary at this critical juncture, when global governance is heading toward incoherent dysfunctionality.
Beyond being the world's second-largest economy, China is now the largest trading partner for more than 120 countries and regions, reflecting the depth of its integration into the global economy. Its massive market pull extends beyond trade in goods. China's trade in services has emerged as a dynamic and rapidly growing sector, particularly in knowledge-intensive industries such as technology consulting, research and development, and digital entertainment. In 2025, China's service exports and imports grew by 14.2% and 2.5% respectively, with total trade in services surpassing 8 trillion yuan ($1.1 trillion), signaling the country's increasing shift toward a consumption-driven and innovation-based economy.
Looking ahead, the 15th Five-Year Plan envisions further institutionalized opening-up of China's economy. This includes expanding market access for both goods and services and increasing imports to stimulate domestic demand. Such measures are expected to reinforce China's role as a stabilizing force in the global economy at a time when protectionism and unilateral economic policies are undermining the rules-based multilateral trading system.
In an era defined by uncertainty, China's long-term development strategy — articulated through the "two sessions" and the five-year plan framework — offers a contrasting model of policy continuity and strategic foresight. While debates over governance models may continue along conventional ideological lines, the broader international community will likely judge China's approach by its outcomes: sustained growth, expanding innovation and deeper global economic engagement.
Ong Tee Keat is the president of the Belt and Road Initiative Caucus for Asia Pacific.
