中文
By Moulik Jahan
Lead: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's visit to Beijing this week, the first by a Canadian leader since 2017, signals a strategic recalibration as Ottawa seeks to reduce its economic dependence on an increasingly unpredictable United States.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's arrival in Beijing this week marks more than a symbolic thaw after nearly a decade of frozen high-level engagement. It represents a structural recalibration in Canada's external economic strategy and a revealing moment in the evolution of China's economic diplomacy under conditions of intensifying unipolar trade pressure.
This visit, the first by a Canadian prime minister since 2017, takes place against a backdrop of profound global uncertainty. Protectionism has reemerged as a dominant feature of the international trading system, with the United States increasingly weaponizing tariffs, industrial policy, and alliance politics. For countries such as Canada, excessive dependence on the U.S. market has evolved from a manageable risk into a structural strategic liability.
With a population exceeding 40 million, an affluent consumer base and a GDP of approximately $2.7 trillion on a purchasing power parity basis, Canada is well-positioned to diversify its trade relationships. The geopolitical disruptions and trade uncertainties under the Trump administration have exposed the fragility of Canada's overconcentration on the U.S. market and underscored the urgency of diversifying its external economic relationships.
Against this backdrop, a strategic pivot toward the Global South has become an economic imperative. Within this broader recalibration, China's role is unique and irreplaceable. As a leading economy of the Global South and the core hub of Asian manufacturing and innovation networks, China offers not only access to a 1.4 billion-strong consumer market for Canadian products, but also an integrated industrial ecosystem that can significantly enhance the global competitiveness of Canadian enterprises.
Beyond market access, deeper engagement with China opens pathways for forward-looking cooperation in climate governance, green finance, advanced manufacturing, artificial intelligence, robotics and the digital economy. These sectors align closely with Canada's long-term development priorities and China's transition toward high-quality growth, creating strong structural complementarities rather than zero-sum competition.
In this context, trade pragmatism and recalibrating multilateral economic engagement are essential for achieving strategic autonomy. Elevating economic rationality above geopolitical confrontation and ideological posturing is not a concession, but a strategic choice in defense of national economic interests. For Canada, revamping its China policy toward dialogue, predictability and mutual benefit represents a necessary step toward safeguarding strategic autonomy, stabilizing growth prospects and reinforcing the foundations of an open and rules-based global trading system.
China, for its part, has consistently positioned itself as a stabilizing force in global trade, defending multilateralism, World Trade Organization rules and open supply chains. In this context, China-Canada relations are no longer a bilateral issue alone; they are a microcosm of the broader struggle between economic globalization and unilateral trade hegemony.
Economically, China and Canada remain deeply complementary. China is Canada's second-largest trading partner, with bilateral merchandise trade reaching 118.7 billion Canadian dollars ($82 billion) in 2024, according to Canadian government data. Canada exports energy products, agricultural commodities, minerals, and wood pulp, while China supplies machinery, consumer goods, electronics, and intermediate industrial inputs essential to Canadian manufacturing. Canadian merchandise exports to China were 29.9 billion Canadian dollars, while merchandise imports were 88.8 billion Canadian dollars.
Yet this fundamentally sound economic structure has been repeatedly disrupted by political interference. Since 2018, bilateral trade has been subjected to tariffs, regulatory obstacles and heightened political scrutiny, often driven by external pressure rather than intrinsic economic disputes.
An auto transport carrier crosses the Lewiston-Queenston Bridge on its way to Canada, as seen from the Canadian side in Niagara Falls, Ontario, Canada, on April 9, 2025. [Photo/Xinhua]
Canada's recalibration toward China must be understood within a broader global context. In 2024, U.S.-Canada trade exceeded $900 billion, making the United States Canada's dominant economic partner by an overwhelming margin. Canada buys more from the U.S. than from China, Japan, the United Kingdom, and France combined. This dependence has long been framed as an advantage. Recent developments suggest otherwise. The reimposition of U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum, automobiles and lumber, combined with increasingly unpredictable trade policy rhetoric, has exposed the fragility of Canada's economic sovereignty. Statements questioning Canada's political autonomy, including references to it as a "51st state," have further intensified domestic debate over strategic independence.
Against this backdrop, Prime Minister Carney's statement that Canada should double non-U.S. exports by 2035 to net an extra $214 billion in trade signals a recognition that diversification is no longer optional. It is an economic necessity. China, as the world's second-largest economy and the largest trading nation, is central to any credible diversification strategy. This is not a matter of ideology but arithmetic. According to an Ipsos poll released in January 2026, 54% of Canadians now support stronger trade ties with China, reflecting a growing public awareness that economic pragmatism must prevail over geopolitical dogma.
From China's perspective, Canada represents a mature, rules-based economy with advanced technology, abundant natural resources, and a stable financial system. In an era where some Western economies are reshoring, friend-shoring or politicizing supply chains, Canada's renewed openness to dialogue offers China an opportunity to stabilize external economic relations with a developed country on a pragmatic basis.
Energy cooperation is one such area. Canada is a major producer of oil, natural gas and critical minerals, including lithium, nickel and cobalt. China, as a global manufacturing hub and a leader in new energy technologies, requires long-term, stable access to these inputs. Cooperation along the full value chain from extraction to processing to downstream manufacturing could generate mutual benefits while enhancing supply chain resilience.
Agriculture is another pillar. China's demand for high-quality, reliable food imports continues to grow amid urbanization and rising incomes. Canada's agricultural sector, known for its scale and safety standards, aligns naturally with this demand. Restoring predictability in agrifood trade would stabilize prices, reduce inflationary pressures, and reinforce food security on both sides.
For Canadian enterprises, China remains a market of unparalleled scale. Despite political headwinds, sectors such as financial services, clean technology, the life sciences, education, and professional services retain strong growth potential. Chinese financial liberalization has expanded access for foreign institutions, while Canada's pension funds and asset managers possess deep expertise in long-term investment. Cooperation in green finance, carbon markets and infrastructure financing could align Canada's institutional capital with China's development priorities. The electric vehicle sector, often framed as a point of contention, also contains opportunities. Chinese firms such as BYD have expressed interest in investing in Canada, including local manufacturing. Rather than viewing such investment through a zero-sum lens, pragmatic policy design could leverage Chinese industrial capacity to support Canada's own energy transition and job creation goals.
At a deeper level, China and Canada share a common interest in resisting the erosion of global trade norms. Both are export-oriented economies that benefit from predictable rules, open markets, and dispute resolution mechanisms. The alternative — fragmented blocs and tariff escalation — raises costs and suppresses growth globally. China has consistently advocated reform and strengthening of the WTO, while Canada has historically played a constructive role in multilateral trade governance. Reengagement between the two countries creates space for joint initiatives on trade facilitation, digital commerce and supply chain transparency that are insulated from ideological confrontation.
The significance of Prime Minister Carney's visit lies not in immediate breakthroughs but in the restoration of strategic dialogue. History demonstrates that the absence of communication magnifies miscalculation, while engagement creates room for managing differences without sacrificing economic rationality.
As Chinese President Xi Jinping told Carney during their October 2025 APEC meeting in South Korea, China-Canada relations have shown "a recovery towards a trend of positive development." That trend, if sustained, could serve as an example for other countries seeking strategic autonomy amid great-power rivalry.
In a world increasingly burdened by unilateralism, protectionism, hegemonism, and power politics, the choice facing China and Canada is not alignment versus opposition, but pragmatism versus stagnation. By prioritizing trade benefits over geopolitical theatrics, both sides can contribute to a more balanced, inclusive and resilient global economic order — one in which cooperation, not coercion, remains the guiding principle.
Moulik Jahan is a Bangladeshi independent researcher, freelance columnist and strategic and security affairs analyst.
