China's new climate goal brings confidence to the world

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As global leaders gather in Belem, Brazil for the 30th Conference of the Parties (COP30) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, increasingly it has become international consensus that the fight against climate change is a relay race against time, where the baton of ambition must be passed to ever-higher goal bearers. In this critical race, the announcement of China's 2035 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) is not just another policy update, it is a remarkable event in global climate cause. China's 2035 pledge represents a profound commitment that will shape the geopolitical and environmental landscape for decades to come.

By the year 2035, China has pledged to reduce economy-wide net greenhouse gas emissions to 7 to 10 percent below their peak levels, and the government states it will "strive to do better."

In parallel, the plan sets qualitative and quantitative goals: Non-fossil fuels will make up more than 30 percent of total energy consumption by 2035. The installed capacity of wind and solar will be expanded to more than six times the 2020 level, aiming for roughly 3,600 gigawatts by 2035. The forestry "stock volume" (a proxy for natural carbon sinks) will increase to over 24 billion cubic meters.

Other commitments are making new-energy vehicles the mainstream of new vehicle sales, expanding the national carbon-emissions trading market to cover key high-emitting sectors, and building a "climate-adaptive society."

The significance of the declaration is evident: It is the first time China has set an absolute emission reduction target, marking its shift from intensity-based control to total emissions control.

The ambitions are backed by policy designs: The 2035 NDCs are embedded into the fabric of China's Five-Year Plans. The strategy is multi-pronged and already in motion, the recent recommendations of the Communist Party of China Central Committee for the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) being a notable example.

First, there is the "dual-wheel drive" of energy transition. China is simultaneously building a large renewable energy system – it is the global leader in solar, wind, and hydropower installation – while imposing strict controls on the growth of coal-fired power.

Second, industrial policy is carefully devised to facilitate climate goals. The government is restructuring the economy, phasing out overcapacity in heavy industries like steel and cement, while consolidating the dominance in the green tech sectors of the future: electric vehicles, batteries, and solar panels.

Finally, a national Emissions Trading System, though still developing, provides a market-based mechanism to incentivize efficiency among thousands of the country's largest emitters.

The global significance of China's declaration cannot be overstated. As the world's second largest economy, China's pathway is vital for the success of the Paris goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius or even well-below 2 degrees Celsius. With China's previous commitments focused on "peaking before 2030" and carbon neutrality by 2060, the 2035 NDCs provide a nearer-term milestone and sets out for the first time an absolute reduction goal.

In the diplomatic terrain, it shows China shouldering its responsibilities in international climate action and global governance. China's announcement hopefully will catalyze higher ambition elsewhere, which is particularly important in an era when we are witnessing wavering or even backsliding on taking responsibilities among some major emitters.

Economically, China's 2035 goals send a strong signal to markets, investors, and global supply-chains. By driving down technology costs and scaling global supply chains, these goals can revitalize global manufacturing of renewables, electric vehicles, batteries, and low-carbon technologies, which will make the international market move faster in the green transition.

All in all, China's 2035 NDCs represent a pivotal moment in the global effort to combat climate change. The path will be complex, possibly fraught with challenges of regional coordination and economic displacement. Yet, the declaration itself is a cause for confidence and optimism.