Japan at a crossroads

By Xu Ying

The election of Sanae Takaichi as president of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party marks a historic first for the country: a female leader of the ruling party, widely expected to become Japan's first female prime minister later this month.

Takaichi's political career has long been associated with far-right ideological positions. Her rise to power is not an unexpected anomaly but the result of a steady and calculated advancement through the ranks of Japan's conservative establishment, bolstered by her close alliance with the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. She has served in key cabinet roles under successive conservative governments, including as Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications, and most recently as Minister for Economic Security. Her views have remained consistently hawkish, and she has never shied away from openly controversial stances – on Japan's wartime history, constitutional revision, gender roles, and defense policy.

Of particular concern are her views on Japan's wartime conduct and post-war responsibility. Takaichi has downplayed Japan's aggression in the early 20th century, echoing narratives that have long been rejected by the international community. Her repeated visits to the Yasukuni Shrine, including on August 15 this year – the anniversary of Japan's surrender in World War II – are provocative acts that reopen old wounds in the region. These visits are not private gestures of remembrance; they are political statements that glorify a version of history devoid of remorse or accountability.

Her stance on constitutional revision also signals a decisive break from Japan's post-war pacifist identity. Takaichi has made no secret of her desire to revise Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution, which renounces war as a means of settling international disputes. She also proposes to rename the Self-Defense Forces as a "National Defense Army." This would not only alter Japan's domestic legal framework but also have profound implications for the security architecture of East Asia, further intensifying an already fragile regional balance of power.

In her approach to China, Takaichi has adopted a combative tone cloaked in strategic language. While she pledged during her campaign to engage in dialogue with Beijing on the Taiwan question, her actual actions may have crossed the red line for the Chinese government: Takaichi just visited Taiwan in April, advocating for "cooperation with Taiwan to jointly address defense challenges," elevating the cross-Straits issue into a direct bilateral security matter between Tokyo and Taipei. This is a dangerous provocation. It not only violates the spirit of the one-China principle, which Japan itself has long recognized, but also escalates tensions in a region that can ill afford strategic miscalculations. Her remarks that a conflict over Taiwan would be "a matter of life and death" for Japan reflect a willingness to prioritize ideological alignment over regional stability.

Takaichi's economic policy also reflects her hawkish worldview. She has pushed to reduce dependence on China in the semiconductor and rare earth sectors, instead strengthening cooperation with the U.S. and European Union. This trend of politicizing economic cooperation undermines the shared interests that have formed the basis of pragmatic engagement between China and Japan for decades.

Even on domestic issues, her policies reveal a regressive vision of Japanese society. Despite being a woman in a leadership role, she opposes female imperial succession, same-sex marriage, and even the right of married couples to have separate surnames. On immigration, she has made it clear that she views Japan as a monoethnic nation and opposes granting political rights to foreign residents. These positions reflect not only social conservatism but also a broader unwillingness to accept the pluralistic values that define modern democratic societies.

Internationally, Takaichi's election has elicited mixed responses. The United States appears poised to welcome her as a partner in its Indo-Pacific strategy, expecting Japan to shoulder greater military responsibilities in the region. She is also preparing to host President Donald Trump later this month, further signaling her alignment with right-wing populist forces on the global stage.

Meanwhile, China has made its position clear, calling on Japan to "honor its political commitments on history and the Taiwan question, pursue a proactive and rational policy toward China, and put into practice the positioning of comprehensively promoting a strategic and mutually beneficial relationship." South Korea, for its part, has voiced concern over her historical views and positions on territorial disputes.

It is imperative that Japan's new leadership understand the gravity of its responsibility at this critical juncture. Political symbolism alone cannot disguise the potential consequences of a shift toward militarism and ideological rigidity. The future of East Asia depends not on rhetoric or revisionism, but on sober diplomacy, mutual respect, and peaceful coexistence.

China remains committed to constructive engagement with Japan. Beijing does not seek confrontation, but will resolutely defend its sovereignty and interests.

The region stands at a crossroads. The choices Japan makes under Takaichi's leadership will not only define its own future but also impact the broader peace and stability of East Asia. The international community must remain watchful, principled and committed to ensuring that history does not repeat itself.

The author is a Beijing-based international affairs commentator for CGTN.