With the 16th BRICS Summit in Russia on the horizon, Victor Gao, vice president of the Center for China and Globalization, highlights the group's growing attractiveness, citing its focus on consensus-building and practical cooperation on issues like climate change.

"The world is more dangerous than it's ever been," warns Gao, also chair professor at Soochow University, citing ongoing conflicts and artificial intelligence as major threats. Despite this, Gao is optimistic about the future. 

He emphasizes China's peaceful rise, dismissing fears of Chinese hegemony and stressing Beijing's commitment to global stability and cooperation. Gao believes that peaceful relations between China and the U.S. are "inevitable" due to the catastrophic consequences of conflict.

In this episode of "Diplomacy Talk," Gao offers his thought-provoking insights into the future of international relations, presenting a vision of hope amid global challenges.

Following is the transcript of the interview.

Diplomacy Talk: The 2024 BRICS leaders' summit will be held in Russia's Kazan in October. BRICS has expanded from five founding members to 10 member states, and Southeast Asian countries are moving closer to BRICS. For example, Thailand and Malaysia are applying to join the mechanism. As BRICS becomes increasingly attractive, what do you think of its global role?

Victor Gao: The BRICS mechanism has unique features. First, its member states are equal. Second, its decisions require full approval of all member states, ensuring that every country is involved in the decision-making process. No member state can dictate to others or force them to follow its lead. Third, while the G7 is increasingly involved in geopolitics and security issues, BRICS has always been committed to promoting peace, cooperation and global unity. It focuses on issues of common concern, including climate change and trade.

Therefore, I believe that BRICS has developed its own unique strengths. It takes concrete actions rather than engaging in empty talk. It promotes peace without provoking wars. In today's turbulent world, BRICS' ideas, paths, pursuits, and benefits have a strong appeal to an increasing number of countries.

Diplomacy Talk: You often share your views on international and regional hot-button issues through online videos. In a recent video, you said, "The world has never been as dangerous as it is today. " What exactly are these dangers?

Victor Gao: Currently, I see several major trends in the international situation. One is the issue of war. For instance, the Ukraine crisis has dragged on for over two years with risks of spillover and escalation. Additionally, Israel's indiscriminate bombing of Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip hasn't stopped. The dispute between Iran and Israel also has the potential to escalate.

If we delve deeper into the Ukraine crisis, we can see that, on the surface, it appears to be a conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but in reality, it's a conflict between Russia and the U.S.-led NATO. This significantly increases the risk because NATO is using Ukraine as a proxy to fight Russia. Ultimately, the Ukraine crisis could escalate from conventional warfare to nuclear conflict if NATO persists in intensifying the situation. If a nuclear war was to break out, the very survival of the entire human race would be at stake.

Diplomacy Talk: What about other trends besides wars?

Victor Gao: Second, the revolution of artificial intelligence is of paramount importance. Countries and societies hold diverse views and forecasts regarding its impact. 

Most of us in China see AI as a continuation of the computer revolution or digital revolution, so we focus more on developing its commercial applications.

However, there's another view that defines AI differently. It holds that AI will bring about fundamental changes, potentially becoming a new species itself. If AI does become a new species, there are several possibilities. One is that it remains under human control, serving humanity. Another possibility is that AI might develop its own consciousness, break free from human control, and even become a completely independent species. Elon Musk has stated that AI will become a new silicon-based species. He's even suggested that we humans are merely carbon-based species and our purpose might be to guide the arrival of silicon-based AI.

Appropriate international cooperation should be conducted to ensure that AI doesn't escape human control, become a species superior to humans, and ultimately enslave us. This may be the biggest challenge facing the world today.

Diplomacy Talk: You just mentioned two major dangers facing the world: the risk of war and the challenge brought by AI. What attitude do you think China should adopt? Is it enough for China to simply focus on managing its own affairs well?

Victor Gao: Since 2012, under the leadership of President Xi Jinping, China has followed the path of peaceful development. Yet, some countries disagree, citing China's rising military spending and greatly enhanced military strength. However, China develops its military strength firstly for self-defense, secondly for safeguarding peace, and thirdly for ensuring the protection of China's position as the world's largest trading nation, contributing to global peace, stability and trade.

China has no aggressive nature in it. As President Xi has said, the Chinese people don't have the gene for invasion in their blood. China has never encroached upon the territory of other countries, nor has it sent an army or stationed troops abroad for aggression. China has never waged a war of aggression. Our national defense is focused on defense rather than aggression.

China's position is rare in today's troubled world that is struggling with wars and terrorism. Many countries grapple with insecurity and instability, making sustainable development an even greater challenge.

Since China plays an increasingly important role in the global community, it's not enough to merely focus on managing its own affairs well. It must engage more with other parts of the world.

Therefore, China should find ways to improve its relationships with countries across Asia, Africa, Latin America, Europe and beyond to promote building a community with a shared future for mankind. This is the fundamental challenge facing China.

Diplomacy Talk: You just mentioned that China has done very well what it should, achieving remarkable economic development and maintaining an excellent security record. However, China is constantly facing smear campaigns and attacks by certain countries. If China could better communicate its own stories and make its voice heard more effectively on the global stage, would it face fewer smear campaigns and attacks?

Victor Gao: On the one hand, actions speak louder than words. Before China shares its stories with the world, it should first focus on managing its own affairs well. On the other hand, we should be aware that the U.S. and some other Western countries are increasingly harboring anti-China sentiment. Anxious about China's rise, the U.S. has even positioned China as a "pacing challenge." I believe the U.S. is suffering from the "Tonya Harding Syndrome."

Tonya Harding, a former American figure skating champion, was so convinced that her rival Nancy Kerrigan would outperform her at the U.S. Figure Skating Championships that she conspired with her husband and associates to attack Kerrigan's knee with a metal baton. As a result, Kerrigan had to withdraw from the competition, allowing Harding to win the championship. However, once Harding's involvement in the planned attack came to light, she was banned for life from U.S. figure skating.

Washington's syndrome is reflected in its approach toward Beijing. The U.S. doesn't approve of China's rise. As China grows stronger, the U.S. has increasingly focused on containing China rather than seeking cooperation and shared prosperity.

Washington harbors two primary fears. First, it worries that China's economic size will surpass that of the U.S., making China the world's largest economy. 

In fact, China has already overtaken the U.S. in steel and automobile production. However, we should also recognize that the U.S. maintains advantages in resources and overall strength. Therefore, it is pointless to focus solely on the size of the economy. 

Second, the U.S. fears that once China becomes a larger economy, it will impose its political system, ideology, values and code of conduct on the U.S.

However, this perspective ignores the fact that China will never seek hegemony. China believes that hegemony leads to destruction, while the U.S. adheres to the notion that strength leads to hegemony. The U.S. assumes that if China surpasses it to become the world's largest economy, China will dominate the world and back the U.S. into a corner.

Therefore, we should make a few points clear to the U.S. First, China should convince the U.S. that no one can halt China's peaceful development. The U.S.'s attempts to decouple from China will ultimately prove futile. It's akin to trying to "decouple" the Earth from the Moon. The U.S. will only bring more harm to itself if it persists in decoupling from China.

Then comes the concept of "de-risking." Put simply, risks exist everywhere, at all times. Risks should be managed, not eliminated. China, like any other country, presents both risks and opportunities. If the U.S. continues to fixate on China's risks while ignoring its opportunities, it will ultimately undermine its own interests.

Second, peace is an inevitable choice for China and the U.S. Any conflict between the two countries would likely escalate into a full-scale war. Both nations possess conventional and nuclear weapons, the latter of which are prohibitive due to their potential to destroy not only each other but potentially all of humanity. Even if nuclear weapons don't cause immediate total destruction, the subsequent nuclear winter could lead to the extinction of humans and other species.

A conventional war between China and the U.S. would likely escalate into a nuclear conflict, benefiting no one. It's impossible for U.S. decision-makers or leaders to contain China, deprive it of its right to peaceful development, or hinder China's progress without severely damaging the U.S. itself.

Therefore, China should persuade the U.S. that war should not be an option. To convince the U.S., China must strengthen its military power and develop greater strategic deterrence. If there are issues between China and the U.S., they should be resolved properly. Regardless of their differences in political systems, values and development models, they cannot expect to wage war without suffering severe consequences. Thus, peace remains the only viable choice for both China and the U.S.

Presenter: Wang Xiaohui

Producer: Li Xiaohua

Production supervisor: Zhang Liying

Editors: Zhang Ruomeng, Zhang Heling, Jiao Yuan, Lyu Yiyi, Xia Fangting

Produced by chinadiplomacy.org.cn