Beijing feels "more at ease" handling U.S. pressure than ever before, reveals foreign policy expert Liu Weidong in his analysis of Trump's second presidency. In this interview, Liu argues China has gained valuable experience from Trump's first term and is now better positioned to manage the bilateral relations.

The conversation explores key aspects of the relationship, including trade policies, visa reforms and diplomatic strategies. Liu argues that although tensions will persist, China will pursue pragmatic diplomacy while protecting its core interests. He emphasizes that both nations must find ways to coexist despite competitive pressures, pointing to continued economic ties and people-to-people exchanges as essential stabilizing factors.

Following is the transcript of the interview.

Diplomacy Talk: Many believe that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's return to the White House will usher in a new era of uncertainty. Are there any certainties in future China-U.S. relations amid these numerous uncertainties?

Liu Weidong: Certainly, on the pessimistic side, regardless of which party's candidate takes office, he or she will continue to pressure China aggressively. This won't change, as being tough on China has become "politically correct" in the U.S.

However, optimistically, even with Trump's harsh rhetoric toward China, both nations must coexist on this planet. That's unchangeable. Also, while the U.S. will persist with its "decoupling" policy, it's unlikely to fully implement it. That's another certainty. Moreover, people-to-people exchanges between the two countries won't completely stop. Both sides need this dialogue to continue.

Diplomacy Talk: Some believe that Trump will cause chaos in the U.S. and worsen the country's relations with its allies after taking office, bringing a strategic opportunity to China. Do you agree with this view?

Liu Weidong: I partially agree. While this does present an opportunity, it's not a significant one. Trump's governance will definitely focus on domestic issues – that's clear from his campaign rhetoric and the Republican platform. However, since domestic progress requires difficult bipartisan cooperation, he might push for quick wins in major foreign policy matters to show early success. While China isn't his top diplomatic priority – that would be the Ukraine crisis and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict – it remains high on his agenda. Even with domestic challenges consuming his attention, Trump will continue to pressure China. That's my first point.

Second, U.S. allies are deeply concerned about Trump's return. During the election, most of the countries favored Harris, hoping for predictable and consistent American policies. Trump's trademark unpredictability worried them, and now that he's won, U.S. allies must reconsider their security strategy in a world where America may be less willing to maintain global order. However, U.S. alliances aren't built solely on interests. They're founded on shared values, people-to-people exchanges and deep-rooted historical connections. While allies may disapprove of Trump's actions, they won't abandon the U.S. for China. The only opportunity lies in Trump's presidency potentially encouraging allies to act more independently and prioritize their own interests rather than automatically aligning with U.S. objectives.

China might have a chance to strengthen ties with certain countries. These opportunities would've been fewer under a Democratic administration, but we shouldn't overestimate the potential benefits of this situation.

Diplomacy Talk: In his victory speech, Trump said, "I'm not going to start wars. I'm going to stop wars." Some believe he wants to end the Ukraine crisis and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict to focus on containing China's rise. Do you share this view or find it worrying?

Liu Weidong: I somewhat agree. Does that indicate a strategic shift in focus from Europe and the Middle East to the Asia-Pacific region? Absolutely. This isn't just Trump's thinking – it's a widespread view among American elites who consistently see China as America's primary challenger.

They believe that if China's growth continues and goes unchecked, it'll soon surpass the U.S., leaving America unable to influence China's development path. Their mindset is, "We must act now before it's too late." That's their real motivation. Shifting the focus to China seems inevitable. To achieve this, they need to eliminate other distractions – that's part of their overall strategy. 

But there's no need for excessive worry. Trump did pivot to Asia in his first term, rebranding the Asia-Pacific as the "Indo-Pacific." Yet he made little concrete progress. His main strategy was trying to involve India, hoping to exploit the disagreements between China and India.

Both Trump and Biden tried to bring India into their newly formed alliance system but with limited success. On international issues, India has its unique positions and practices, sometimes incomprehensible to others, setting it apart in the world. Take the Ukraine crisis for an example: India supports Ukraine and opposes Russia's actions, yet maintains economic ties with Moscow. And while Prime Minister Modi appears to have a good personal rapport with U.S. presidents, he steadfastly refuses to follow America's lead. 

We shouldn't worry too much about this, as these nations will ultimately prioritize their own national interests, carefully weighing the benefits of aligning with the U.S.

However, the U.S. is threatening other countries to take a side. While some countries are indeed shifting toward the U.S. under pressure – notably Japan and South Korea – Southeast Asian nations continue to resist taking sides. That's why I'm not particularly concerned about potential pressure on China if the U.S. shifts its focus to our region.

Moreover, perpetual world peace isn't realistic. As a global superpower, U.S. interests are at stake everywhere, and unexpected crises are inevitable. Even if the Ukraine crisis and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict end, other regional crises will emerge, inevitably drawing America's attention and preventing it from focusing solely on China. Therefore, there's no need for excessive concern about Washington's strategic pivot toward China.

Diplomacy Talk: Trump believes he has a good relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Will the U.S.-Russia relationship improve significantly after Trump takes office? What impact will this have on China?

Liu Weidong: Some Chinese are concerned about this, but I see it differently. Actually, many people in the U.S. and Russia are hostile toward each other. This will not change with Trump taking office. 

Within the U.S., there's deep-rooted wariness toward Russia. American elites uniformly view Russia as an expansionist nation whose interests conflict with those of the U.S.

Therefore, powerful forces throughout the U.S. government, Congress, and broader political establishment would resist any attempts by Trump to build closer ties with Russia. This was evident during his first term: despite Trump's friendly personal rapport with Putin, U.S.-Russia relations remained strained. The institutional resistance to improving relations with Russia transcends individual presidential preferences.

On the other hand, Russia may hope to improve its relationship with the U.S. and expect the U.S. to focus all its attention on China, which would ease Russia's burden. However, the U.S. won't completely relax its vigilance toward Russia. I think Russia is very clear about what position it should take between China and the U.S.

In conclusion, we don't need to worry excessively about the impact of an improved U.S.-Russia relationship on China. We shouldn't be misled by remarks of certain individuals, as they don't represent the national policies.

Diplomacy Talk: Recently, China expanded its visa-free transit policy and implemented unilateral visa-free policies for some countries. This means that Chinese citizens still need visas to travel to these countries. Why do you think China has "abandoned" the principle of reciprocity and implemented unilateral visa-free transit policies toward these countries?

Liu Weidong: First, as the world is suffering from a strong anti-globalization trend, China must adhere to the free trade system and continue promoting cultural exchanges between countries. In this context, providing unilateral visa-free access demonstrates China's sincerity in opening up.

Second, China hopes that people-to-people relations can play a leading role. And how can such relations be improved? A visa-free policy is an effective means to attract more foreigners to visit and understand China, and tell the world more objective information about the country. It will help strengthen China's soft power.

Third, China's unilateral visa-free policy puts reverse pressure on countries that stick to trade protectionism and block people-to-people exchanges. Other countries will compare their behavior with that of China. Then the world will know that China, as a developing country, has done better than those developed countries. Therefore, it will be good for shaping China's global image.

Diplomacy Talk: How do you think the new U.S. administration will intensify its economic suppression of China? Are there enough "tools" in China's toolbox of countermeasures? And are they powerful enough?

Liu Weidong: From Trump's statements, there won't be much difference between the suppression methods of his second term and those of his first term. The U.S. will still use a few old "tools."

First, tariff hikes, including the cancellation of China's most-favored-nation treatment, which will ultimately affect the tax rates for Chinese goods exported to the U.S. Second, supply chain adjustment: The U.S. aims to cut off the supply chains between China and the U.S. and "decouple" from China. Third, bilateral investment limitations: The U.S. intends to limit and significantly reduce, but not completely ban, bilateral investment. 

Compared to those of Trump's first term, these measures will be more extreme, larger in scale, involving a wider range, and will leave a more severe impact.

China has various effective "tools" in its toolbox. For example, Trump proposed imposing a 60% tariff on all Chinese products exported to the U.S. during his campaign. Chinese research institutes conducted sand table exercises to evaluate its impact on China and potential countermeasures, and the results showed that China can still deal with it. 

In fact, the U.S.'s potential tariff hikes will have a two-way effect, affecting not only China but also the U.S.

Therefore, China has already deployed some of the "tools" in its toolbox. For example, China is expanding its domestic circulation and enhancing cooperation with other Global South countries. If trade with the U.S. doesn't work, China will turn to other developed countries for cooperation. By diversifying the "tools" in our toolbox and introducing new policies, China can alleviate the harm caused by the U.S., which seems unavoidable.

Diplomacy Talk: China has had four years' experience of dealing with Trump, both working with him and standing up against him. Do you think China will respond with more calm and composure over the next four years?

Liu Weidong: Yes, I think so. Some labeled Trump as a political amateur when he took office eight years ago. Now, it's completely different. He stayed in the White House for four years and has continued to engage in politics since then. He has been trying to influence American policies, and he has a lot of experience. The officials nominated this time have all been selected directly by him.

China is constantly observing Trump and his team's style. China is more confident in dealing with Trump than before. Although Trump likes to use uncertainty as an effective tool, he has lines he won't cross on many issues, as we have studied from his statements. We are more familiar with his style. Therefore, during Trump's second term, China will be more at ease in dealing with him.

Diplomacy Talk: Facing Trump's extreme pressure, some countries may have yielded to it, such as U.S. neighbors Mexico and Canada. However, as a major country, China must respond to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests. But in doing so, the U.S. will definitely take further retaliatory measures, putting both sides in a cycle of countermeasures. If China doesn't take countermeasures, the U.S. will make even higher demands, potentially cornering China. What should China do? Should China actively fight a trade war with the U.S. or follow a course of both fighting and negotiation?

Liu Weidong: The U.S. has been launching attacks, while China has been on the defensive. We have to engage in a trade war with the U.S. to safeguard China's core interests. However, China cannot give up on negotiations because there is still a significant gap between China and the U.S. China aims to start negotiations with the U.S. by defending itself in the trade war and secure peace through the negotiations. 

Peace and development remain the theme of the times. Every country has a demand for peace and development. The right way is to seek negotiation while fighting the trade war, but it requires more wisdom.

We have been saying that we must be both brave and adept in carrying out our struggle, which implies that fighting is to be followed by negotiation. We should focus more on "being adept in carrying out our struggle."

In fact, the Communist Party of China (CPC) was once a weak force that had to face strong enemies. In that context, how did it defeat its opponents through hard struggle? There are many experiences worth learning from. Only by combining fighting with negotiation, rather than relying solely on one of them, can China maximize its own interests.

Diplomacy Talk: Some scholars believe that adopting a non-retaliatory approach would be the best choice for boosting China's economy. Do you agree with this viewpoint? 

Liu Weidong: They possibly make this judgment from a purely economic perspective. They believe that the best development path for China is to maintain market openness. They presume that the U.S. will take the initiative to start a conflict and then pull China into its trap, after which China would have to follow all the rules under the U.S. dominance.

However, we should consider the problem from multiple perspectives. As the world's second-largest economy, China will lose political points if it chooses to avoid or simply comply with U.S. pressure. Moreover, the Chinese people won't accept this.

China needs to convey a message to the world that it doesn't want a trade war and that it's the U.S. that is pressuring China. China is responding passively and will terminate its response at any time once the U.S. stops its pressure. China is just protecting itself. China should send this political signal to the world, and then it may use various strategies to handle economic issues, which can all be discussed. We cannot consider the economy alone.

Pressure and retaliation benefit no one. Compared to the U.S., China's advantage lies in its endurance rather than its attack capability. Each side has its own way of evaluating gains and losses. Trump will accept a victory that comes with a cost, knowing the U.S. will be harmed while damaging China. He believes the U.S. won't have a second chance and must act now to pressure China, even at a cost.

Diplomacy Talk: As we've observed, the two major political parties in the U.S., especially the Republican Party, have been increasingly propagating anti-communist and anti-China sentiment since 2018. Some American politicians advocate for a "new Cold War" and regard the CPC as their opponent. The U.S. attitude toward China is likely to worsen and create an increasingly toxic atmosphere. How should we view and respond to this situation? 

Liu Weidong: This is a general trend. First, China should be wary of this reality that the relationship has already worsened to its current state. Former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said that U.S.-China relations will never be what they once were. This is now recognized both domestically and internationally.

So, how should we approach this situation? Rather than being self-abased or overly worried, China should regard the U.S. with zero strategic concern.

Although Trump appears to be taking a tougher stance on China, his tactics remain unchanged from those of his first term. He has few new "tools" at his disposal. Meanwhile, both China and the U.S. have evolved significantly since eight years ago. The gap between the two major countries continues to narrow, and China now has more experience and better preparation in countering U.S. pressure.

Second, China should tactically take the U.S. seriously, as it remains the world's most powerful nation, outperforming China in several key areas. They include its extensive alliance system, global network of overseas bases, capability of effective maritime military projection, influence of its culture and values as well as the U.S. dollar's dominant role in international finance. These fundamental strengths will persist in the near term.

Therefore, once the Trump administration decides to exert extreme pressure on China, we must be mentally prepared for the challenging days ahead. We should be ready for hardship and objectively evaluate our situation. We mustn't be overly optimistic or pessimistic. It's crucial to have a realistic understanding of both ourselves and the U.S.

Third, extreme forces in the U.S. are pushing China-U.S. relations toward a "new Cold War," as evidenced by their actions. They include attempts to "decouple" supply chains, terminate people-to-people exchanges, and emphasize ideology and national identity politics. These are clear signs that the U.S. is deliberately moving in this direction.

We must not fall into this trap. Why is the U.S. pushing for a "new Cold War?" Because it's familiar with the Cold War and knows how to defeat an opponent in such a scenario. China, having never engaged in the Cold War, would be at a disadvantage. If we fall into this "new Cold War" trap, we'd hardly have any ability to counter the U.S.

How can China avoid this trap? It must firmly reject turning everything into ideological issues. In terms of diplomacy, China must be pragmatic and manage its own affairs well. It must avoid making enemies on all sides and unite all available forces. The Chinese leadership has always emphasized expanding China's circle of friends. We should work hard toward this goal, and the current visa-free policy is an effective means of doing this.

China should concentrate on "policy innovation." As the world undergoes unprecedented changes, China should innovate on how to take care of its business instead of continuing the old ways of doing things. It should proceed from meeting the severe challenges when handling the various issues. In my opinion, there are quite a few things that we should reflect on and adjust so as to attain self-improvement and better adjustment to the new reality.

The future competition between China and the U.S. is not about diplomacy or military power but more about domestic governance. Whoever can manage their own affairs well will be able to successfully tackle international challenges. China has started working on this aspect, as many policy plans for reform and opening-up have been put forward at the third plenary session of the 20th CPC Central Committee. Fully aware of the development, the Chinese government has taken a cool-headed approach to it. 

We should focus on improving our domestic governance in the future and, more importantly, avoid severe mistakes. Whoever can make fewer mistakes will have better development and stronger international competitiveness.

In a word, we should not be rattled or overwhelmed by Trump's seemingly aggressive posture. We have enough ability to handle the pressure although we should think carefully about each move we make. As I see it, we are better prepared for dealing with the current situation than during Trump's first term. We should be confident about that!

Presenter: Gao Anming

General supervisor: Wang Xiaohui

Producer: Li Xiaohua

Production supervisor: Zhang Liying

Editors: Zhang Ruomeng, Zhang Heling, Jiao Yuan, Lyu Yiyi, Xia Fangting

Produced by chinadiplomacy.org.cn