China's approach to climate governance has brought stability and certainty to the global fight against climate change, according to Wei Ke, a research scientist at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

In this episode of "Diplomacy Talk," Wei explains how China's visionary climate policies and its plan to cut emissions are setting an example for other countries. At the same time, China is also providing concrete assistance: its green technology is helping other nations, especially those in the Global South, achieve cleaner growth and better tackle climate challenges.

At a time when some Western nations are backtracking on their climate commitments, China is stepping up as a dependable leader, according to Wei. This, he says, gives the world a clearer path to a cleaner and more sustainable future.

Following is the transcript of the interview.

Diplomacy Talk: Climate change dominates headlines globally, but how severe global warming has actually become?

Wei Ke: According to the World Meteorological Organization, in 2024 our globe was about 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than it was before the Industrial Revolution. This is a remarkably high figure, though many of us may struggle to grasp its significance. 

The Earth's climate system is extraordinarily complex and finely balanced, encompassing the atmosphere, oceans, polar ice caps, and numerous other components. As a result, the Earth's temperature is far more stable and resistant to change than the human body's. In fact, raising the global average temperature by 1.5 degrees Celsius is exponentially more difficult than a 1.5-degree rise in human body temperature. 

Consider it this way: if your body temperature increased by just 1.5 degrees Celsius, you would already be noticeably ill. In the case of a child, the parents would get quite worried. The Earth is now in a similar crisis state. It is exhibiting clear symptoms of distress, and its vital systems are deteriorating.

Diplomacy Talk: What new patterns are emerging in terms of extreme weather events nowadays?

Wei Ke: Extreme weather events are a concentrated manifestation of the Earth's failing systems. Over the past 20 years, compared to the final two decades of the 20th century, extreme heat events have surged more than 230%, while extreme rainfall events have increased over 190%. 

In China, this manifests most strikingly in increasingly frequent summer heat waves that persist far longer than before. For instance, many southern cities remained in summer conditions well into October this year. In Chongqing, for example, summer weather now accounts for more than 180 days of the year. That's more than half a year.

So this is my first observation: Summers are growing longer and hotter, with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius becoming increasingly frequent. 

Second, rainstorms are growing more intense. Just this past summer, most cities across China experienced at least one episode of torrential rain and subsequent urban waterlogging.

Diplomacy Talk: If we fail to confront these climate changes, what are the consequences for our daily lives?

Wei Ke: Global warming has already reached alarming intensity. Left unaddressed, it will trigger catastrophic consequences. Consider a child whose body temperature rises from 37 degrees to 38.5 degrees Celsius. Without intervention, the child faces serious health risks and potential life-threatening complications. The same principle applies to our planet's warming.

Inaction virtually guarantees that within a decade, the global average temperature will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. By 2050, warming will surpass 2 degrees. By the end of this century, we could face 4 degrees of warming or more. Think of it this way: a child's temperature rising from 37 degrees to 39 degrees demands intervention. If it climbs further to 40 or even 41 degrees, the situation becomes critically dangerous.

If this trend continues, extreme weather events will intensify globally. Recent years have already seen catastrophic consequences. The torrential rains in Zhengzhou on July 20, 2021, claimed more than 300 lives. This past summer, Beijing's Miyun district suffered severe mountain flooding, while many regions across China battled with widespread waterlogging. If left unaddressed, such flooding events will become increasingly frequent, and we may regularly see instances where a year's worth of rainfall pours down in just a few days in certain areas. 

For outdoor workers, rising temperatures create mounting dangers. China already issues its highest-level red alert for extreme heat across many regions during summer, signaling temperatures of 40 degrees Celsius or higher. This triggers economic disruptions as heat safety protocols force temporary halts to outdoor work, protecting worker health but constraining productivity. In addition, extreme heat severely limits ordinary people's outdoor activities. Those who want to exercise or enjoy recreational time will increasingly find themselves confined indoors. This is not a future we should accept.

Diplomacy Talk: In 2005, Chinese President Xi Jinping, then-secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Zhejiang Provincial Committee, proposed the concept that "clear waters and green mountains are as valuable as mountains of gold and silver" (the "two mountains" concept). Today, this idea has become widely recognized and deeply ingrained in people's minds. 

At a time when China was single-mindedly pursuing economic growth, proposing such a concept was equivalent to setting a new course for the giant ship of China's economy. Do you agree with this view?

Wei Ke: I completely agree with this judgement. Back in 2005, China was experiencing rapid GDP growth, with heavy industries developing at a fast pace. It's fair to say that was a period of exceptionally fast economic expansion in China's modern development history, akin to speeding down the highway.

In this context, proposing the "two mountains" concept was equivalent to timely tapping the brakes on that highway, gradually changing lanes toward the path of green development. This approach helped us avoid the consequences of severe pollution and exorbitant governance costs. What this has brought us today, something we can all tangibly feel, is increasingly more blue skies and clear waters, along with more destinations we're eager to explore. Therefore, this concept stands as a truly pivotal theoretical contribution to China's development over the past two decades.

Diplomacy Talk: From a global perspective, what insights does this concept offer to nations worldwide, particularly developing countries, as they pursue a path of both development and environmental protection?

Wei Ke: Harmony between humanity and nature is a core principle of the Global Development Initiative proposed by President Xi Jinping. This concept distills the essence of China's economic development experience over recent decades, emphasizing that economic progress must be achieved while maintaining ecological stability and environmental quality. It provides a model and theoretical foundation for all developing countries, helping them avoid the path of "pollution first, treatment afterwards." This approach transforms late-mover disadvantages into advantages, enabling countries to pursue green development from the start. We have demonstrated that this is indeed a sustainable and viable path forward.

Diplomacy Talk: What notable achievements in climate or environmental governance has China attained through practicing the "two mountains" concept over the past two decades?

Wei Ke: Indeed, over the past two decades, we have witnessed profound environmental improvement across China. According to data from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the world has grown significantly greener, with China accounting for at least a quarter of this global increase. Two decades ago, China's forest coverage stood at approximately 18%. Through sustained effort, it has now surpassed 25%.

Another significant achievement lies in the fundamental improvement of air quality across our country. Around 2010, each autumn and winter brought widespread concern about the return of severe pollution episodes. Thanks to concerted efforts over the past decade, China's air pollution situation has been fundamentally reversed. Average PM2.5 concentrations in major cities have now dropped below 30 micrograms per cubic meter, meeting the national standard for excellent air quality.

Third, China's green transition has achieved phased milestones. Wind and photovoltaic power now accounts for more than 45% of China's total installed capacity, surpassing thermal power. This represents a remarkable accomplishment and signals that China's green transformation has entered the fast lane.

The "two mountains" concept underscores the immense value of our natural environment. It enables us to live better lives with greater joy and fulfillment. These are benefits that cannot be measured in monetary terms.

Diplomacy Talk: In his speech at the United Nations Climate Summit this September, President Xi Jinping announced China's new Nationally Determined Contributions, outlining several key targets. By 2035, China aims to reduce economy-wide net greenhouse gas emissions by 7% to 10% from peak levels, increase the share of non-fossil fuels in total energy consumption to over 30%, and make new energy vehicles the mainstream in new vehicle sales. What is your assessment of this series of goals?

Wei Ke: I want to emphasize that this target is truly ambitious, as implementing it is far from easy. Consider 2020, when the world was grappling with the COVID-19 pandemic. Countries across the globe imposed lockdowns and travel restrictions, halting most activities. Yet even under those extraordinary circumstances, global carbon emissions decreased by only 3% to 5%.

China's target to reduce carbon emissions by 7% to 10% from peak levels by 2035 represents a reduction two to three times, or even three to four times, greater than the global decrease observed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Achieving this will require tremendous effort. 

However, a defining characteristic of China is that once it makes a commitment, it delivers on it. By setting such an ambitious target, China provides the global community with both ambition and certainty in addressing climate change.

It is particularly crucial for China to set such an example at a time when trade disputes and geopolitical divisions are intensifying worldwide. It provides clear certainty for the development of related global industries, particularly new energy vehicles, as highlighted by President Xi, along with associated fields such as lithium batteries, advanced energy storage systems, photovoltaic technology, and wind power generation. These innovations will expand from China to other parts of the world. This commitment is truly remarkable.

Diplomacy Talk: In his address, President Xi also noted that by 2035, China will have basically established a climate-adaptive society. What would such a society look like? Could you briefly describe it for us?

Wei Ke: This is the first time President Xi has proposed new climate targets addressing both dimensions of the challenge. Global climate discussions traditionally emphasize carbon reduction. This is what we in climate science call "climate change mitigation," which basically means reducing the severity of the problem. Beyond mitigation, however, there's an equally important approach: adaptation. In other words, how effectively can we respond when disasters strike? President Xi has now set targets on both fronts.

A climate-adaptive society means that when the same disaster occurs, improved infrastructure standards and stronger social governance capabilities will enable us to significantly reduce the losses. Achieving this goal requires elevating the nation's infrastructure and disaster management systems to a higher level by 2035.

For cities, this means that with improved urban ecosystems, the "urban heat island" effect will be substantially weaker than today. Sponge city infrastructure will be more advanced, and protective measures for outdoor workers during extreme heat will be strengthened. When heavy rainfall occurs, cities' capacity to manage precipitation and withstand flood events will improve significantly.

I am confident that by then, even if a 50-millimeter rainstorm occurs in a single day, it will not disrupt normal urban operations in the vast majority of our cities. Although the global average temperature may rise beyond 1.5 degrees and 40-degree Celsius heatwaves will still occur annually, alongside exceptionally heavy rainfall events, yet the resulting casualties and economic losses will be far lower than what we experience today.

Diplomacy Talk: At the General Debate of the United Nations General Assembly in September this year, U.S. President Donald Trump devoted nearly a quarter of his speech to attacking various efforts to address climate change. He even called climate change "the greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world." As a climate scientist, how would you respond to such remarks?

Wei Ke: The U.S. Republican Party largely represents the interests of oil and petrochemical organizations, which is why it opposes climate action, whereas the Democratic Party supports it. Over the past two decades, the climate policies of the Democrats and the Republicans have diverged sharply. President Bill Clinton supported climate action and thus signed the Kyoto Protocol. When President George W. Bush took office, he opposed climate measures and withdrew the U.S. from the Kyoto Protocol. Later, President Barack Obama's administration joined the Paris Agreement. When President Donald Trump assumed power, he pulled the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement. President Joe Biden, upon taking office, rejoined the agreement, and when Trump secured a second term, he signed an executive order to withdraw from the Paris Agreement once again. Climate change has become a key battleground in American politics, with the two major parties sharply divided on the issue.

There is broad consensus among global climate scientists regarding climate change. Through over a century of research, scientists have conclusively established that the world is experiencing exceptionally rapid warming, at a pace that far exceeds all historical climate change processes. Moreover, human activities are responsible for virtually all of this warming. This is why the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Sixth Assessment Report used the term "unequivocal," meaning there is no doubt that global warming is driven by human activities. 

It is important to recognize that scientific consensus reflects the collective judgment of the world's leading climate scientists rather than the opinion of any single individual. To draw an analogy: You had a heart condition and sought diagnoses from all the world's top cardiologists at renowned hospitals, and they unanimously concluded that you were seriously ill and required surgery. But if someone like President Trump — who lacks expertise in the field — told you, "You're fine," you would reasonably disregard that dissenting voice. And any rational person would trust this collective diagnosis. 

Thus, President Trump's rejection of the scientific consensus on climate change is, in my view, not a wise stance, as the scientific evidence is overwhelmingly clear and established.

Diplomacy Talk: In the same month, China's leader announced a new round of Nationally Determined Contributions while the U.S. president denied climate change. This stark contrast raises a key question: How do you view the shifting roles of China and the U.S. in global climate governance?

Wei Ke: The two major political parties in the U.S. have turned climate issues into a key topic of partisan struggle. Yet climate science is well-established and should transcend such contention. This reveals a significant global problem: Under partisan politics, virtually any issue can become a tool for political struggle and a means to secure votes.

China's statements, by contrast, demonstrate respect for scientific consensus and acknowledgment of scientific facts, reflecting its posture as a responsible major country. China's policies maintain continuity, having established "dual carbon" goals as its long-term development strategy. The U.S., meanwhile, experiences constant policy reversals. These policy differences reflect fundamental divergence in how the two countries view humanity's future. China has demonstrated sustained commitment, while the U.S. has not.

Diplomacy Talk: Despite escalating geopolitical competition between China and the U.S., climate cooperation between the two nations has repeatedly managed to recover after hitting low points. Beyond official political willingness, what underlying factors have sustained this cooperative relationship and prevented it from being completely severed?

Wei Ke: Climate is indeed a critical issue in Sino-U.S. relations, often serving as the initial area for breaking the ice in bilateral ties. This is because climate change affects both countries: China faces increasingly frequent heat waves and heavy rainfall, as does the U.S. Both countries share an urgent need to manage, govern and address the global climate crisis, necessitating joint action.

Climate change is indeed one of the most extensive areas of cooperation between China and the U.S. When both nations address climate change together, particularly in advancing green transition, coordination and connection within their supply chains become crucial. The U.S. also requires a green transition, which depends heavily on key supply chain components in renewable energy: solar panels, wind turbines, and electric vehicles. Therefore, it cannot achieve this transformation without China's cooperation.

Scientific evidence demonstrates that climate change is happening, affecting China, the U.S. and all other nations. Addressing this crisis requires joint effort from both countries to achieve the best outcomes. If one nation fails to engage seriously in responding to the climate crisis, the other will be unable to tackle it effectively. Therefore, coordinated action from both nations is essential. This reflects the global consensus and expectation.

Diplomacy Talk: Do you believe the current global climate governance model is sufficient to address the urgency of the climate crisis?

Wei Ke: I maintain a cautiously optimistic stance regarding the global capacity to effectively address the climate crisis. First, it must be acknowledged that the situation is indeed severe. Within the next decade, the global average temperature will likely exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. By mid-century, it is projected to surpass 2 degrees. Whether it will continue rising or begin to decline after exceeding the 2-degree threshold depends entirely on the climate pathways we pursue in the coming years and decades.

Whichever scenario unfolds, the impact of global warming will be increasingly severe between now and mid-century. 

The global response to climate change is primarily structured through the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Agreement. However, a critical limitation is their lack of binding enforcement mechanisms. Neither framework imposes mandatory requirements on individual nations. Instead, they rely on countries to voluntarily propose their own actions and emission reduction targets.

Due to the lack of a binding enforcement mechanism, there is no guarantee that individual national actions will collectively achieve the desired overall outcome. This is akin to a choir or a symphony orchestra performing without a conductor. Each performer plays his or her own instrument, making it difficult to ensure the final harmony. The situation is further complicated when a certain country repeatedly withdraws from the agreement and then rejoins it, much like the lead violinist in the orchestra going on strike, returning, then striking again. Such inconsistency would make it challenging for an orchestra to produce a harmonious and effective performance.

Nevertheless, I remain optimistic about our ability to address climate change, primarily because of my confidence in technological advancement. Over the past decade or so, China's new energy industry has developed rapidly, with companies continuously innovating. We have successfully driven down global renewable energy costs. Solar panel prices have fallen to less than one-tenth of what they were over 10 years ago. Moreover, solar energy is now commercially profitable. Its cost is lower than that of coal-fired power generation.

We cannot predict what technological breakthroughs will emerge in the coming decades, but these innovations may provide powerful tools to combat climate change. We should maintain optimism in science. One of its greatest strengths is its capacity for continuous and accelerating progress. This is the foundation of our confidence in the future.

Presenter: Wang Xiaohui

Production supervisor: Xue Lisheng

Co-production supervisor: Li Xiaohua

Executive producer: Zhang Liying

Producer: Zhang Ruomeng

Editors: Zhang Heling, Jiao Yuan, Lyu Yiyi, Xia Fangting

Produced by chinadiplomacy.org.cn