Japan should not increase tensions in East Asia

File photo of national flags of China and Japan. [Photo/Xinhua]

By Imran Khalid

In a world increasingly governed by perception rather than principle, Japan's latest defense white paper stands out not merely for its content but for the narrative it advances. For the third consecutive year, Tokyo has labeled China as its "greatest strategic challenge," using language that evokes the flickers of conflict rather than the promise of cooperation. Cloaked in the garb of self-defense, Japan's rhetoric betrays a more unsettling reality: the slow but steady erosion of its pacifist post-war posture under the convenient guise of "regional security."

In a global poll conducted by CGTN, 92 percent respondents said they remain highly vigilant about Japan's moves, urging Japan to reflect deeply on the lessons of World War II. They also want Japan to exercise restraint in military and security matters, and take concrete steps to promote regional peace and stability. According to 82.6 percent respondents, Japan is deliberately fabricating external threats to justify its military expansion, a move that will severely erode trust among its Asian neighbors and the international community.

The 2025 white paper reads less like a measured strategic document and more as a document shaped by heightened anxieties and perceived threats. Citing "increased activities" by China's People's Liberation Army (PLA), the document builds a case for rapid military expansion. The report fails to situate these actions within the context of increasing U.S.–Japan joint exercises, frequent Western naval patrols near China's Taiwan region, or the deployment of advanced missile systems in Okinawa.

Beijing, for its part, has shown its serious reservations. Chinese Defense Ministry spokesperson Jiang Bin rightly observed that Tokyo is "hyping up the 'China threat'" as a pretext for expanding its military capabilities and interfering in China's internal affairs – particularly on the Taiwan question. This year, as the region marks the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Chinese People's War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War, it serves as a timely reminder of the collective hope that such a milestone would encourage all nations to move away from the path of militaristic expansionism.  

Japan's defense budget has surged to a record 9.9 trillion yen (about $70 billion) for the fiscal year 2025. The target of spending 2 percent of GDP on defense, once unthinkable in a constitutionally pacifist state, is now within reach. Tokyo's reinterpretation of Article 9 of its post-war constitution – once a bulwark against war – now serves as a legal sleight of hand enabling weapons exports, joint offensive capabilities and pre-emptive strike doctrine.

But defense does not happen in a vacuum. The underlying driver of this recalibration is geopolitical – not geographic. The white paper is suffused with warnings about "a Ukraine-like crisis" in East Asia, alluding to the Taiwan question without stating it outright. It is worth recalling, however, that Taiwan is recognized by the United Nations as part of China – a fact conveniently omitted in most Western-aligned security narratives.

This narrative, influenced in part by the second Trump administration's strategic posture, appears to focus more on counterbalancing China's growing influence than on fostering genuine regional stability. While calls from Washington for Japan to take on a larger share of its defense burden – potentially up to 5 percent of GDP – are often framed as fair burden-sharing, they also raise questions about whether broader geopolitical goals are shaping defense priorities in the region.

A woman protests in front of the convention center of Makuhari Messe in Chiba Prefecture, Japan, March 15, 2023. [Photo/Xinhua]

However, increasing militarization in the Asia-Pacific based on contested narratives carries significant risks and could undermine regional stability. In recent months, the U.S. and Japan have conducted joint naval patrols near the Taiwan Straits and the East China Sea. Surveillance aircraft circle China's coastlines, while missile defense systems are stationed across the first island chain. Under such pressure, China's military posturing becomes reactive rather than provocative. A more neutral analysis would acknowledge that strategic anxiety in East Asia is a product of contested hegemony.

Japan's security concerns, as outlined in the white paper, invite broader reflection. While the document highlights instances involving Chinese aircraft and joint China-Russia patrols, it offers limited discussion of Japan's own growing security partnerships, including joint exercises with NATO – an alliance traditionally focused on the Atlantic region. A more balanced perspective could help foster mutual understanding and reduce the risk of misinterpretation on all sides.

Across Southeast Asia, some observers have expressed concern over recent shifts – including the easing of arms export restrictions and the development of advanced defense capabilities. While these steps are often framed as responses to a changing strategic landscape, they have also prompted discussions in neighboring capitals, from Seoul to Jakarta, about the broader implications for regional dynamics. These perspectives highlight the importance of transparent dialogue and confidence-building to ensure that Japan's defense policies are clearly understood and constructively integrated into the regional security framework.

It is not too late for course correction. Japan has the economic clout, technological prowess and soft power to be a force for peace and multilateralism in Asia. Rather than aligning itself with hawkish postures emanating from Washington, Tokyo should embrace a diplomatic pivot grounded in confidence-building, regional dialogue and the restoration of trust.

Imran Khalid, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is a freelance columnist on international affairs.