中文
By Bradley Blankenship
Embarking on July 25, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken concluded his six-country tour of Asia on August 3, with a clear message from the Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs that the U.S. is "all-in on the Indo-Pacific" and aims to "reassure allies and partners that there are certain fundamentals" despite the turbulence in U.S. domestic politics.
Economic polarization: From globalization to fragmentation
The economic landscape has shifted dramatically. Where globalization once promised a unified world economy, economic polarization now reigns. This shift was starkly highlighted by former U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war with China, an opening salvo that few predicted would lead to today's fractured economic environment. Trump's high tariffs have morphed into President Joe Biden's comprehensive strategy of economic polarization, effectively birthing a "one world, two markets" reality.
This new economic reality is not just a series of policies but a profound shift in how nations interact. The era of globalization, driven by capital and supported by government policies, aimed at integrating markets and reducing barriers.
However, economic polarization has turned this paradigm on its head. Governments now take the lead, and capital follows suit, often reluctantly. The results are visible: Supply chains are being reconfigured, trade partnerships are being reassessed, and economic alliances are being redrawn. This strategic decoupling is not just about tariffs or trade wars; it's about reshaping the global economic order in a way that prioritizes "national security" over economic efficiency.
Geopolitical polarization: Containing China
The geopolitical arena is perhaps the most charged. Washington views China as a challenger capable of reshaping the international order. In response, the U.S. has forged several regional alliances aimed at encircling and containing China. The U.S. academic and policy community is now coalescing around the concept of the "Global East," grouping China with Russia, Iran and the DPRK as part of a global "autocratic bloc."
These geopolitical maneuvers are not just about containing China's rise; they are about preserving the existing international order. The creation of minilateral groupings, such as the Quad (comprising the U.S., Japan, India, and Australia), reflects a strategy to counterbalance China's influence in the "Indo-Pacific." These alliances are not merely defensive but are proactive measures designed to project power and influence in the region. The message is unmistakable: Any attempt by China to alter the status quo will be met with a coordinated response from a united front of nations.
A demonstrator holds a placard at Hiroshima's Funairi Daiichi Park in a protest against the Group of Seven (G7) summit in Hiroshima, Japan, May 19, 2023. [Photo/Xinhua]
The new battlefield: The Asia-Pacific
The U.S. and its Western allies are increasingly focusing on the Asia-Pacific as the next potential flashpoint. Cognitive warfare, attributing Russia's resilience in Ukraine to Chinese support, has shifted strategic attention to this region. Washington's ultimate strategy appears to be turning the Asia-Pacific into a powder keg, creating divisions and stoking conflicts under the guise of peacekeeping.
The Asia-Pacific region, with its strategic waterways, economic hubs, and military bases, is becoming the focal point of U.S. foreign policy. The Biden administration's "Indo-Pacific Strategy" underscores this shift, emphasizing the need to strengthen alliances, enhance military presence and promote democratic values in the region. However, these moves are viewed with suspicion by China, which sees them as efforts to contain its rise and undermine its sovereignty.
The challenge for China
China faces a significant challenge in responding to the U.S.'s confrontational strategy. The U.S.'s aim to encircle and contain China through creating a volatile atmosphere in the Asia-Pacific region demands a nuanced and strategic response from Beijing. The stakes are high, and the potential for miscalculation is enormous, making it imperative for China to navigate this complex geopolitical landscape carefully.
China's response will likely involve a combination of diplomatic engagement and economic resilience. Beijing must balance its assertiveness with a willingness to engage in dialogue, showcasing its commitment to regional stability while protecting its national interests.
In conclusion, the rising tensions and deliberate polarization across economic, ideological and geopolitical spheres increase the risk of a large-scale conflict. The form and location of such a conflict may be uncertain, but the underlying drivers are clear and present.
The world stands at a critical juncture, where the actions of today will shape the conflicts of tomorrow. The challenge for global leaders is to recognize these fault lines and work towards a more stable and cooperative international order, rather than succumbing to the forces of division and confrontation.
Bradley Blankenship, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is a Prague-based American journalist, political analyst, and freelance reporter.
