Time for Olympic peace

By Grzegorz W. Kolodko

International relations are deteriorating, mutual mistrust between states is growing, the cold-war atmosphere is intensifying, and bloody conflicts are taking place, especially in Ukraine and the Gaza Strip. By no means it has to be that way, and yet it is and will be for some time to come. No one knows for how long.

The drama of the situation lies in the fact that in various countries the forces pushing for clashes rather than peaceful dialogue tend to be more influential. Pro-war pressure groups in certain Western countries are more powerful than peaceful political circles. One of the stupidest sentences in history is being thoughtlessly promoted: If you want peace, get ready for war.

Well, no; if one desires peace, one must get ready for it rather than spend a fortune to arm oneself to the teeth, which can be knocked out by others arming themselves. Today, even a minor incident can lead to a major disaster. But still, it is not too late.

For every action, there is a reaction. The spiral of military spending is getting momentum. In 2023, the world spent a record $2.4 trillion on armaments, 6.8 percent more than in the previous year, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). The world military burden, which is defined as military spending as a percentage of global GDP, increased to 2.3 percent in 2023. Meanwhile, there is not enough money for healthcare and education, infrastructure development, and combating disastrous global warming, not to mention culture and science.

It is obvious that because of various conflicts of ideas and interests, maintaining security requires keeping a balance of power. But the trick is to achieve such a desired state at the lowest possible cost, not with ever greater outlays. Unfortunately, the latter is the case in several countries, starting from the NATO members grandly celebrating the bloc's 75th anniversary. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg announced that in 2024, 23 out of the 32 total member countries will meet or exceed the target of spending at least 2 percent of GDP on defense.

The biggest arms spender is the U.S. with $916 billion. It is no wonder that their budget deficit is approaching 7 percent of GDP, and massive public debt is growing, approaching 100 percent of GDP, threatening to destabilize its economy. The American industrial-military lobby, together with the parties they finance and the corrupt media, is so strong that peaceful voices are effectively silenced.

More than half of the global military spending – $1.3 trillion – is made by NATO. European member states share 28 percent of these costs, in total spending over three times more than Russia, which allocated the equivalent of only $109 billion, equivalent to 5.9 percent of its GDP. Though taking the purchasing power parity into account it is the equivalent of almost $400 billion, according to estimates by SIPRI, it is still a third less than the expenditures of the European NATO countries. If only the members of the European Union are considered, their aggregated military budgets still exceed that of Russia.

Balance of power is not about further increasing the spending of the member states or creating a special EU military fund – though there are suggestions of going into debt of several hundred billion euros for this purpose – but about making better use of the already vast resources allocated to the military, i.e. optimizing the structure of the outlays incurred and coordinating national policies in these fields. However, the hawks, not the doves, are gaining the upper hand – from Helsinki and Tallinn through Warsaw and Berlin to Copenhagen and Brussels.

Does it make us safer? Even if such is the conclusion drawn from an opinion survey, we must be aware that public view is deeply manipulated through the media narrative. People must first be frightened by the specter of the enemy. Then it is easier to distract them from the failures of the policies unable to effectively address other pressing problems. So the psychological terror of societies continues.

Arousing anxiety is also an instrument used to increase the profits of already lucrative businesses. During the five years of 2019-2023, compared to the 2014-2018 period, the share of United States arms exports in total global exports increased from 34 percent to 42 percent. During that time, the U.S. supplied arms to 107 countries.

As the situation becomes more complicated, all kinds of scenarios for the evolution of the situation on the political and war fronts are being plotted. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is being prolonged because neither side is willing to make concessions, without which it will be impossible to reach a peaceful compromise.

The conflict persists because it is no longer a secret that the West is using it as an instrument to weaken Russia not only as revenge for its "special military operation" in Ukraine, but in the context of ongoing tectonic geopolitical changes. Hence, this war must be continued, exhausting Russian human and material resources. Sanctions were not imposed all at once, with devastating effect, but have been imposed in successive limited portions (the EU introduced 14 such bans during the 28 months of the war).

Aid to Ukraine is also being provided gradually, in ineffective installments. Previously, there was no consent to deliver state-of-the-art tanks or F-16 fighters, but now they are being sent, as well as long-range missiles capable of attacking targets on Russian territory. Certain NATO countries are even considering sending their soldiers to Ukraine. This prolongs the armed conflict and constitutes a threat that the crisis will escalate.

This is not the way. Any opportunity to stop fatal clashes is good. Tens if not hundreds of thousands of people have already died on both sides of the front; many are still dying every day; even more people are physically and mentally suffering; the material losses are enormous.

Therefore, the sooner there is an unconditional ceasefire, the better. French President Emmanuel Macron's call for a ceasefire at the Paris Olympics may create a chance. Everyone should support it, leaving further resolution of the extremely complex problem to negotiations. This crisis can end only at the negotiating table, not on the battlefield. Give peace a chance! It is still not too late.

Grzegorz W. Kolodko is a former deputy prime minister and finance minister of Poland, professor of political economy at Kozminski University in Warsaw, and distinguished professor of the Belt and Road School at Beijing Normal University, and the author of the books "China and the Future of Globalization: The Political Economy of China's Rise" (Bloomsbury, 20201) and "Global Consequences of Russia's Invasion of Ukraine: The Economics and Politics of the Second Cold War" (Springer. 2023).