中文
By Andy Mok
In a stark display of waning influence, the United States finds itself resorting to increasingly desperate measures in its bid to maintain technological supremacy over China. The Biden administration's latest push for stringent semiconductor export controls not only reveals the failure of previous policies but also threatens to alienate key allies, potentially unraveling the very fabric of Western technological hegemony.
Washington's recent efforts to tighten its grip on global semiconductor trade through stricter export controls betray a recognition that its past strategies have fallen short. The administration is now wielding the Foreign Direct Product Rule (FDPR) as a severe threat, attempting to bully compliance from reluctant allies. This extreme measure, allowing the U.S. to impose controls on foreign-made products using even minimal American technology, aims to force companies like Japan's Tokyo Electron Ltd. and the Netherlands' ASML Holding NV into compliance with America's anti-China agenda.
Yet, despite these heavy-handed tactics, China's semiconductor industry continues to flourish. The existing restrictions have done little to impede China's progress, as Beijing pours substantial investments into its semiconductor sector, exemplified by the massive Big Fund III. This resilience underscores the futility of America's attempts to contain China's technological advancement.
Ironically, these initial restrictions may have inadvertently strengthened China's resolve to establish an independent semiconductor supply chain. By investing heavily in domestic capabilities, China is not only addressing its vulnerabilities but also positioning itself as a formidable competitor on the global stage, directly challenging America's technological dominance.
The economic repercussions of these restrictive policies are being felt across the globe, with U.S. allies bearing the brunt. The mere threat of using FDPR caused Tokyo Electron's shares to plummet by 7.5 percent, leading a broader decline in Japan's 225-issue Nikkei Stock Average. Similarly, ASML shares in Amsterdam nosedived by 11 percent, staggeringly erasing about $46 billion worth of market value. These market tremors underscore the destabilizing effect of America's unilateral actions on the global economy.
As Washington contemplates even stricter export controls, it faces growing resistance from its supposed allies. Both Japan and the Netherlands have been pushing back against U.S. pressure, seeking more time to evaluate the impact of current bans and awaiting the outcome of the upcoming U.S. presidential election. This hesitation reveals a deepening skepticism among U.S. allies about the wisdom and sustainability of America's aggressive stance.
Staff members work at a semiconductor wafer workshop of a company in the Western Science City in southwest China's Chongqing Municipality, August 24, 2023. [Photo/Xinhua]
In the Netherlands, a rising tide of nationalist sentiment may be pushing the country towards a more independent foreign policy, less aligned with U.S. interests. The appointment of Reinette Klever of the far-right Freedom Party to oversee export control policies signals a potential shift away from automatic compliance with U.S. demands. Klever's background, including co-founding a TV channel known for its pro-Russian reporting, adds an intriguing dimension to the Netherlands' evolving stance on international relations.
The involvement of Dutch King Willem-Alexander in diplomatic efforts related to semiconductor policy highlights the gravity of these negotiations and the lengths to which nations are going to protect their economic interests from American overreach.
Moreover, President Biden's unsatisfactory performance further undermines U.S. influence. The perceived instability and lack of coherent leadership in Washington reduce the credibility of U.S. commitments, making allies increasingly wary of aligning themselves too closely with America's fluctuating policies.
As the U.S. continues its aggressive push to isolate China technologically, the cracks in its alliances are becoming increasingly evident. Rather than strengthening American leadership, these new measures may accelerate the erosion of trust and cooperation among its closest allies. With Japan and the Netherlands displaying growing resistance, it seems only a matter of time before other nations follow suit, prioritizing their national interests over America's demands.
The upcoming U.S. presidential election adds another layer of uncertainty, further undermining the long-term viability of these restrictive policies. Allies find themselves at a crossroads, forced to choose between aligning with a faltering U.S. strategy or charting their own independent courses in a rapidly changing global landscape.
Ultimately, America's pursuit of technological dominance at the expense of global cooperation reveals a nation struggling to maintain its grip on power in an increasingly multipolar world. As the limitations of its coercive approach become more apparent, the U.S. may find itself isolated, watching as other nations forge new alliances and chart their own paths in the global semiconductor industry.
This unfolding scenario presents opportunities for countries to strengthen their technological partnerships and offer alternative models of cooperation to nations weary of American bullying. As the global order shifts, the era of unquestioned U.S. technological supremacy appears to be drawing to a close, ushering in a new age of diverse technological ecosystems and more balanced global influence.
Andy Mok, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is a senior research fellow at the Center for China and Globalization.
