中文
Chinese Premier Li Qiang speaks at the eighth business summit among China, Japan and South Korea, in Seoul, South Korea, May 27, 2024. [Photo/Xinhua]
By Azhar Azam
At a trilateral summit with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, Chinese Premier Li Qiang stressed that all three countries should regard each other as partners and oppose turning trade and economic issues into political or security matters.
The summit's restoration, after a four-year hiatus, holds great significance as the leaders agreed to speed up negotiations on a tripartite free trade agreement and boost people-to-people exchanges. They also reaffirmed support for an open, rules-based multilateral trading system, and expressed common interest and responsibility to maintain peace and prosperity in the region.
While the restart of the summit is itself significant, there is something of greater significance still. The leaders expressed willingness to refocus on dialogue and communication to push collaboration on issues from trade to climate change. In addition, Yoon commented that "our three countries…this year will join forces to contribute to peace and prosperity" and Kishida acknowledged that all of them "share a great responsibility for peace and prosperity in the region." This indicates the summit has made a great leap forward to navigate tensions and derive consensus on the economy.
China, Japan and South Korea are deeply linked in a cultural and economic relationship. Together they account for about 25 percent of the global GDP. China was the biggest trading partner of Japan and South Korea last year and one of their most important investment partners.
This despite the U.S. intensifying pressure on them to scale back their ties with the world's second largest economy. This bond urges the three countries to increase engagement to maintain regional peace and double down on economic growth and people's prosperity.
The Trilateral Cooperation Secretariat (TCS) – an institution established with a vision to promote lasting peace, common prosperity and shared culture among the three nations – is a vital forum to strengthen trilateral cooperation and achieve common objectives. According to the TCS, in 2022 the three countries combined accounted for 23.4 percent, 20 percent and 18.7 percent of the world GDP, population and trade respectively.
All three countries are also members of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade treaty, which plays a crucial role in unlocking significant resources for trade and investment and fostering dynamic regional and global value chain activities.
The summit comes amid Washington's attempts to stoke tensions in the region by forging a NATO-like trilateral security alliance.
This military partnership to strengthen "joint response capabilities" to combat alleged threats from the Democratic People's Republic of Korea could be counterproductive, inducing Pyongyang to upgrade its nuclear and missile arsenal and weakening the fundamental objective of denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. It could also provoke China, raising the threshold of risk across the region.
Such blocs also have conflicting principles like the "America First" and "Korea First" policies of the respective countries that prioritize national interest over alliance-based cooperation. Japan's inspiration from NATO, with Shinzo Abe during his tenure as prime minister in 2015 reinterpreting the country's law to allow "collective national-defense," permitting deployment of troops abroad, has put regional peace and prosperity at risk.
Japan's characterization of China as "a matter of serious concern" in its national security strategy, actions to complement the U.S. policy on trying to contain China, its recent defense and security cooperation with America, and Kishida labeling China as "the greatest strategic challenge" too do not augur well for Kisida's own ambition to safeguard peace and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific.
Due to these inherent complexities, Kishida's defense expansion drive and the war summit with U.S. President Joe Biden met with a sharp rebuke from the Japanese people, opposition and media, which believe that he is overly aligned with America, ignoring Japan's close economic ties with China.
Even in the U.S., it's feared that the rising political uncertainty in Japan could erode the Japan-U.S. alliance, the cornerstone of Tokyo's national security policy. A potential volcanic change of administration in the U.S. and the Kishida government's dismal approval rating further threaten to impact this partnership.
Tokyo's shift from a pacific to an aggressive approach has cost Japan. Negative growth (-0.8 percent), a weakened yen, accusations of economic mismanagement, and inflation exceeding the target for the 25th consecutive month continue to hobble Japan's economy. After falling behind Germany, it is set to concede the crown of the world's fourth largest economy to India in 2025.
China's emergence as a geostrategic reality, its economic rise, importance as a key player and active role in regional and global architecture, as well as its contribution to Asian and international growth is a testimony to its peaceful ambitions, belief in dialogue to fix disputes, and willingness to share the benefits of its growth with all countries.
According to Nikkei, the real growth rate in Japan and South Korea has been lackluster for more than a decade. Even as trade and geopolitical tensions escalate between Beijing and Washington, Tokyo and Seoul are not in a position to "sever economic ties" with Beijing.
Last year, South Korea saw its growth rate drop below Japan's for the first time in 25 years; Japan's real growth averaged just 0.7 percent between 2000 and 2022. China's per capita GDP, which as per the World Bank has risen over the past three decades more than 30 times, and GDP expansion of 5.3 percent in the first quarter of 2024 offer the world an opportunity to take advantage of Chinese affluence and economic rebound.
Given that all three countries are economically interdependent and confront common challenges, non-cooperation is not an option as it may lead to stunted growth in the troika and the region. It's therefore critical for them to prevent getting caught in the turbulent U.S. agenda and avoid misunderstandings and challenging each other's sovereignty. They should continue dialogue to find ways of cooperation and coexistence to jointly contribute to peace and prosperity.
Azhar Azam, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, works in a private organization as a market and business analyst and writes about geopolitical issues and regional conflicts.
