中文
By Josef Gregory Mahoney
Most interpretations of President Xi Jinping's New Year address have so far veered between two extremes: some overly positive versus others parsing his words for doom-and-gloom scenarios of a China teetering on the verge of collapse or posing a threat to others. Neither approach truly reflects his tone or literal meaning.
Let's start with the tone. Xi's sincere and heartfelt words, while closing with a more rousing tone, directly addressed the public, offering a sober assessment of the challenging year of 2023. He greeted the world, but his message was directed primarily toward a domestic audience, no doubt aware that many are focused on immediate concerns. He was neither reserved nor self-important. He aimed to convey balance and confidence while providing a critical perspective. He implied that China had fared relatively well compared to other countries in the past year, a point he did not make directly but is undoubtedly true all the same. After all, a New Year's greeting is not the time to point out the shortcomings of others, especially after a universally difficult year.
An early remark that helped set the tone was, "As the positive life-energy rises after the Winter Solstice, we are about to bid farewell to the old year and usher in the new." He conveyed a double meaning here. First, the idea that we were soon to enter spring, not just a new calendar year, but the Chinese New Year as well. Second, that we were emerging from a wintry period of challenges peculiar to 2023, and we might well expect a better year in 2024.
Overall, he was correct to point out that we should not regard the past year as one of complete disappointment. He acknowledged that some were struggling to find adequate jobs and also mentioned those who suffered from natural disasters, indicating that these individuals would remain a priority in his mind as the government advances policymaking. Nevertheless, he noted that the economy had weathered the storm, demonstrating its resilience and dynamism. What could have been added is that the Chinese economy proved to be more fundamentally sound than other leading economies, and that the Chinese people had experienced less trauma, illness, and social, political, and economic disruptions overall than others. These were the contexts for his observation that 2023 "marked the return of bustling life across the country, embodied people's pursuit of a beautiful life, and presented a vibrant and flourishing China to the world."
What the Chinese people and others around the world should understand is that China faced down numerous challenges associated with easing pandemic controls, having thus minimized the negative impacts of subsequent outbreaks, all while dealing with the U.S. attempts at advancing a tech blockade and constantly meddling in China's internal affairs. As China did so, it managed to restart and stabilize its economy, reengage the world with very active and vision-oriented major country diplomacy, and continue to bring peace and development to the world, especially the Global South. It did all these things while effectively upholding China's sovereignty, security and development interests.
This is the message of confidence he offered as an honest perspective of key achievements despite challenging circumstances. These achievements included securing a bumper harvest for the 20th consecutive year and making new advances in rural revitalization. He highlighted achievements in innovation, such as the C919 airliner, new breakthroughs in space exploration, and advances in consumer electronics.
He observed how innovative, green industries are increasingly becoming pillars of the Chinese economy, along with other successes associated with upgrading what is already the world's most advanced industrial system. He also mentioned efforts to bring more development to Chinese regions where it was needed, thus addressing regional inequality — a long-standing "imbalance" he has repeatedly acknowledged in other speeches. Additionally, he praised the progress in the development of the Guangdong- Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.
Some have wondered whether the speech provided insights into upcoming policymaking. On the one hand, this was a New Year's greeting and not a policy speech, so it's probably not prudent to parse his words for new insights or hints on possible policy changes or upcoming reforms. On the other hand, aside from reiterating his familiar themes of "deepening reform and opening up" across the board, in tandem with cultivating talents capable of driving innovation and green development, there were two points that stood out.
First, while China made remarkable progress in stabilizing its economy in 2023, thereby laying a firm foundation for new growth in 2024, he explicitly linked reform and opening-up to further enhancing people's confidence in development.
Of course, worries about the present and future can affect both production and consumer confidence. They require a delicate balancing of different policies to stimulate growth and consumption without incurring too much debt or becoming too vulnerable to unsustainable growth, among other concerns. Indeed, this might help explain why the recent reforms have streamlined decision-making and policy coordination regarding the national economy, yet have still moved cautiously, minimizing unnecessary market disruptions.
Second, he highlighted the importance of balancing growth with security. While there were concerns that China had sacrificed growth for security, especially during the pandemic, recent months have shown more attention for growth, suggesting we might see new policies in this direction going forward now that "a smooth transition" had been achieved in the nation's COVID-19 response efforts.
President Xi noted that 2024 will mark the 75th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China. He outlined goals for the year, including advancing Chinese modernization, fully and faithfully applying the new development philosophy across all fronts, promoting stability through progress, and establishing the new before abolishing the old. He stated that the "ultimate goal is about delivering a better life for the people." He emphasized that China "should foster a warm and harmonious atmosphere in our society, expand the inclusive and dynamic environment for innovation, and create convenient and good living conditions so that people can live happy lives, bring out their best, and realize their dreams."
This concept of a "better life" harks back to President Xi's statement that "people's yearning for a better life is the goal of our struggles", which he made on Nov. 15, 2012 when first elected top leader of the Communist Party of China. At the time, it became evident that people were increasingly focused on quality of life, not just quantitative indicators. This shift initially drove efforts to improve air quality and environmental well-being, which has positively intersected with China's emergence as the world's leading country in green innovation. It also aligns with the ongoing necessity of transitioning to high-quality, sustainable growth to advance the Chinese modernization, the national rejuvenation, and, altogether, the Chinese Dream.
With these points in mind, he noted the necessity of improving childcare and education, ensuring that young people have better opportunities to pursue their careers and succeed, and that elderly people have improved access to medical services and other forms of care. He emphasized that these matters are important to every family and a top priority for the government. Putting people first, he stated, "We must work together to deliver on these issues."
Although the work on foreign affairs was not a major theme of the speech, he did remark on China's remarkable post-COVID efforts to reengage with the world and fulfill its responsibility as a major country. This was demonstrated through the Belt and Road Initiative, which celebrated its 10th anniversary in 2023, along with several key summits held in China and around the world. Chinese foreign policy advanced significantly in Central Asia, symbolized in part by the China-Central Asia Summit, and in the Middle East, evidenced by high-level meetings and cooperation, but most notably by China's successful mediation of the resumption of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Additionally, the BRICS expanded, many heads of state visited Beijing, and the president traveled extensively, as he noted. All these efforts demonstrate China's rise as a major country and support its economic recovery, sovereignty, and overall security.
Josef Gregory Mahoney is professor of Politics and International Relations at East China Normal University and senior research fellow with the Institute for the Development of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics at Southeast University and the Hainan CGE Peace Development Foundation.
