中文
By Imran Khalid
As expected, the political clout of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has experienced a significant tremor following his departure from Washington recently without securing additional approval for increased U.S. military funding for his country amidst the exhaustive conflict with Russia. It is also a major setback to U.S. President Joe Biden and his party.
The fact is that President Biden deliberately invited Zelenskyy to Washington to personally plead his case for additional military and financial support. President Biden hoped to leverage the perceived influence of Zelenskyy within American political circles. The calculated decision to involve Zelenskyy was aimed at employing his persuasive abilities to sway Republican opinion, a task Biden deemed more effective if delegated to the Ukrainian leader rather than handling himself.
The underlying assumption was that Zelenskyy's presence could catalyze a more favorable response from the Republicans, especially if the Democratic Party showed a willingness to compromise. The intended scenario involved a diplomatic interplay where Zelenskyy's lobbying, coupled with potential compromises from the Democratic Party, might create a conducive environment for the Republicans to make concessions on military aid to Ukraine. President Biden's strategic calculus included the possibility of – at least – securing some emergency assistance or crucial provisions, such as weapons and operational supplies essential for Ukraine's winter warfare plans. Delegating Zelenskyy with the responsibility of persuading Republicans constituted a calculated strategic move that was a strategic gambit. But it did not work and Zelenskyy returned home empty-handed.
Zelenskyy's intentional involvement in U.S. domestic politics has brought him to the current stage, with Republican reluctance to provide additional aid to Ukraine partially stemming from his close association with the White House. The Ukraine issue has become a political tool for Republicans to challenge the Democrats, complicating diplomatic decisions and maneuvering overall foreign policy. The alliance with the U.S., once seen as advantageous, now reveals inherent risks for Ukraine amid the toxic dynamics of American partisan politics. This episode serves as a bitter reminder of how the Ukraine conflict has become a bargaining chip in American politics.
The fallout from Zelenskyy's Washington visit is likely to impact his position at home where his political opponents are sharpening their knives. Zelenskyy's strategic approach to managing the war is facing criticism from his political rivals, who advocate for a more realistic and less optimistic public discourse. Such internal matters add one more layer of complexity to an already stressful wartime scenario for Zelenskyy.
The inability to strike a balance between addressing domestic challenges and projecting strength on the international stage further aggravates the intricate challenges faced by Zelenskyy at the moment. The Ukraine conflict stands at a critical juncture, serving as a litmus test for the political vision of the United States, Ukraine, and Europe. All parties involved struggle with war fatigue, internal divisions, and the looming specter of an unpredictable battlefield.
Acknowledging a stark reality, Ukraine's military leader, General Valery Zaluzhny, has recently recognized the stalling of the counteroffensive, marking a noticeable downturn in the once-pervasive optimism hyped in the early stages of the conflict. Some influential Western media reports have revealed that the Ukraine counteroffensive, planned to pack a considerable punch, has faltered, giving rise to tensions and second-guessing between Washington and Kyiv. This setback has spurred pricking questions regarding Ukraine's capacity to reclaim substantial territories.
The miscalculation by the U.S. regarding the swift transformation of Ukraine's forces into a Western-style fighting unit overestimated the achievable progress in a short timeframe. Compounding this, political leadership from both Ukraine and the West miscalculated Russia's willingness to sacrifice lives on a level exceeding the tolerance of most nations.
Additionally, there was an oversight in gauging Russia's ability to fortify defenses and rapidly advance in drone technology. From a war-hero-like reception in the U.S. Capitol in 2022 to navigating a deeply fractured Congress in December 2023, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy now struggles with escalating challenges in his Washington outreach. The stark transformation in U.S. attitudes lays bare a disturbing reality – the professed commitment to Ukraine appears more self-serving than genuinely concerned for the Ukrainian people.
In 2022, the West celebrated Zelenskyy not for his merits but as a strategic tool to drain Russia's resources, disregarding the plight of the Ukrainian populace. The prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict failed to weaken Russia; instead, Western nations grappled with severe inflation, intensifying reluctance to support Ukraine. The unintended consequences highlight the geopolitical complexities and the unanticipated toll on Western societies.
However, Germany's decision to bolster Ukraine's military with about $ 1.1 billion aid package – on the heels of Zelenskyy's overtly frustrating visit to Washington – reflects a strategic recalibration within the EU. Recognizing the limits of military aid in decisively altering the conflict, Germany aims to reassert its leadership in the EU amidst a waning U.S. interest. This move also underscores Germany's strategic intent for a more autonomous stance on regional crises. As the Ukrainian issue evolves into primarily a European concern, Germany's initiative signals a broader shift towards European self-reliance and a renewed emphasis on "European brotherhood" in navigating complex geopolitical challenges. Perhaps this kind of support from Germany is the only consolation for Zelenskyy and his team for the coming summer.
Imran Khalid, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is a freelance columnist on international affairs.
