COP28: Thorns and victories

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After an extra day of intense negotiations, the 28th meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP28) finally clinched a landmark climate deal – UAE Consensus – on December 13. As a response to the first Global Stocktake of how countries can accelerate action to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, the UAE Consensus took shape following weeks of tough talks and concessions.

Nations at COP28 approved a roadmap for "transitioning away from fossil fuels" – the first for a UN climate conference. However, the UAE Consensus stopped short of a long-demanded call for a "phase-out" of oil, coal, and gas. "While we didn't fully turn the page on the fossil fuel here in Dubai, this is the beginning of the end," said UN climate chief Simon Stiell.

Before COP28, UN-represented international organizations and participants had already debated on energy transition and the language on the future of fossil fuel. Some participants insist on a "phase-out" or at least a "phase-down" of fossil fuels in the final deal. Certain island countries that have already been influenced by the sea level rise resist signing a deal that lacks a firm commitment to wean the world off fossil fuels. "We will not go silently to our watery graves," said John Silk, the head of the Marshall Islands' delegation.

In the meantime, some oil producers and consumers including Saudi Arabia and Iraq are strong opponents of anti-fossil fuel language in the final text. COP28 President Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber claimed that "there is no science out there, or no scenario out there, that says that the phase-out of fossil fuel is what's going to achieve 1.5 degree Celsius," indicating that a phase-out could "take the world back into caves."

Al Jaber's remarks sparked harsh criticisms from scientists, international organizations, the media, and the public. "It is incredibly concerning and surprising to hear the COP28 President defend the use of fossil fuels," said Sir David King, the chair of the Climate Crisis Advisory Group and a former UK chief scientific adviser. Bill Hare, the chief executive of Climate Analytics, believed that Al Jaber's words about "taking the world back into caves" are verging on climate denial.

It is worth noting that as COP28's host country, the United Arab Emirates is one of the largest oil-producing nations in the world. Meanwhile, as COP28 President, Al Jaber is also the CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC). According to BBC, the ADNOC pumped 2.7 million barrels of oil a day in 2021, with plans to double that by 2027. Environmentalists believe Al Jaber's appointment as COP28 President is "completely ridiculous" and called into question the UN climate process.

The negotiations on the future of fossil fuels are much more difficult than imagined. COP28 participants are at different developmental stages with different economic and societal structures and thus have different interest appeals. This means a consensus is difficult at COP28. Although the UAE Consensus stopped short of a call for a "phase-out" of oil, coal, and gas, the agreement on "transitioning away from fossil fuels" is a step forward. At COP28 closing, Stiell said that the climate conferences are "a consensus-based process, meaning all Parties must agree on every word, every comma, every full stop." "This is not easy at all," Stiell stressed.

It is worth noting that talks on the loss and damage fund were tough during COP27 last year. According to the UN Adaptation Gap Report 2023 released in November, the adaptation finance needs of developing countries are 10 to 18 times as big as international public finance flows. Moreover, certain rich countries are unwilling to pay for the losses from carbon emissions. The consensus on the loss and damage fund during COP28 is an "early victory," according to Reuters.

COP28 has attracted a record number of more than 100,000 attendees with the range of topics and the intensity of negotiations unprecedented. This demonstrates the world's urgent calls to accelerate energy transition and address climate change. The UAE Consensus that was reached after rounds of hard talks and concessions manifests the strength of multilateralism in addressing global challenges.

However, the threat of global warming is still imminent. Research shows that the global average temperature could be temporary across a 1.5 degree Celsius threshold in 2024, putting more pressure on the entire world that is still struggling with the energy transition, emission reduction, and financial support.

For mankind, the climate crisis is not just an issue of environment, but also an issue of survival.