中文
By Michele Geraci
Italian media have reported that Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto made some inflammatory remarks against the memorandum of understanding (MoU) on bilateral cooperation within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) that Italy signed in 2019 during Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Rome. He stated that Italy joined an "improvised and atrocious decision," adding that the agreement has brought no benefits to Italy and therefore, in his view, Italy should not renew the agreement. Naturally, his statement has caused some concerns and reactions in China.
However, I wish to reassure our Chinese friends that what Crosetto said in no way reflects the views of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, the person who is responsible for making the decision. Crosetto was simply airing his own view on a topic that does not fall under the responsibilities of the Minister of Defence, and he made those remarks most likely for domestic electoral purposes, trying to gain some marginal support from certain voters who see the BRI as a challenge, but not as a representation of the views of the Italian government. I know this as a fact as I have just been to the Italian Parliament in the past few days discussing exactly this issue with various members of parliament and people close to the three main coalition parties.
The way that Italian politics work is different from the way in China. In Italy, we have a high frequency electoral cycle that includes city mayor, regional government, central government, and European Parliament. They do not fall on the same day. Far from it, they are purposely split inside the electoral period so that political parties can continuously test popular consent and, if necessary, adjust their policies. It is something conceptually similar to the U.S. mid-term election; just that in Italy we have several of those, not just one. In May next year, we will hold European Parliament elections, and for some individuals the focus is already shifting towards gaining consensus for that deadline.
As a result, Italian members of government tend to use international politics as a tool for domestic politics. Almost all of the remarks made by Crosetto and many others aimed at China, the BRI, NATO, the European Union, Russia and others should not really be interpreted as actual remarks against those entities, but rather a way to create an "external danger" or "monster" so that each of these individuals can be perceived by the general public as the hero who rescues them from such a "danger." This approach is perfectly in line with most novel narrative archs.
Therefore, I would advise our Chinese friends not to read too much into such inflammatory remarks. They are not really aimed at what appears, and they fall outside the responsibilities of the minister.
Premier Meloni has indeed very different views, even from her own minister of defence. Do not be surprised, this is Italian politics.
She is looking at the memorandum with the utmost care, looking at what — if any — elements agreed upon back in 2019 may still be valid or may need amendments. She is considering the current geopolitical and economic situation as a new factor to consider, and rightly so. She is not going to rush into any decisions, but will take her time. The official position of the Italian government on the BRI is only what she says, not what other ministers say. And what she said is that she has made no decision yet, and she has until December to make one. And, more importantly, she remarked — even during her trip to the White House — that she will make her decision based on what is in the best interests of Italy, not on what other countries — the U.S. included — would advise.
This is exactly the approach taken by then-Deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio, then-Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, then-Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte and I when we decided to join the BRI in 2019. And I — as the Former Undersecretary of State of Ministry of Economic Development of Italy, an economist, a foreign trade expert and the promoter of the MoU on BRI — will do my best to provide her with all relevant data, analysis and an overall vision of the global economy so that she can make the best-informed decision.
My personal view is that in light of the new geopolitical landscape and the frictions between the East and West, an initiative of peace and development of infrastructure such as the BRI is more needed now than it was over four years ago, and my country — Italy — will now gain even more benefits than we imagined then. If my analysis is correct, paired with Meloni's goal to do what is best for Italy, I would expect a renewal of the agreement and even additions to the text to reinforce it.
Michele Geraci, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is former Under-secretary of State of the Italian Ministry of Economic Development.
