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By Nikola Mikovic
Amid the conflict in Ukraine, the Kremlin seems to attempt to develop close relations with Asian and African nations, although there are indications that Moscow still sees a window of opportunity for improvement of its economic ties with the West.
The very fact that journalists from what Russia sees as "unfriendly countries" were not allowed to attend this year's St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, indicates that for Moscow close cooperation with non-Western countries could be among the nation's top priories. According to Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Kremlin will pay special attention to the construction of the International North-South Transport Corridor – running from northern Russia across the Caspian Sea to southern Iran.
"Russia wants to build a partnership with those countries that value sovereignty," the Russian leader stressed on June 16 at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.
Iran, from the Russian perspective, is undoubtedly among them. Russia also seeks to strengthen economic and political ties with the United Arab Emirates – whose President, Mohammed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, was one of the most prominent attendees at the business forum in Putin's hometown of St. Petersburg – as well as with Algeria – whose leader Abdelmadjid Tebboune pledged to deepen the North African nation's "strategic partnership" with Russia.
But some Russian officials, despite tense relations between Moscow and the United States, and its European allies, reportedly aim to continue doing business with the West as usual. For instance, Igor Shuvalov, Chairman of the Russian state development corporation VEB.RF, said at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum that "the restoration of Russia's economic relations with the West will continue." Moreover, even Gennady Zyuganov, the leader of the Russian Communist Party, insists that Russia's foreign policy should "turn both to the East and the South and not put an end to cooperation with the West."
Even Putin claims that the Kremlin will not prevent foreign companies that have left Russia following the sanctions that the West has imposed on Moscow from a potential return to the Russian market.
Thus, Russia is expected to preserve its current macroeconomic course, although it might increase trade volume with Africa and Asia, rather than with Western nations. In other words, Russia does not seem to plan to make any radical changes in its economic policy. Despite anti-Russian sanctions, Moscow remains integrated into the global economy. The major difference is that it now seeks to shift its energy and other trade eastward and southward.
Politically, tensions between Russia and the West will undoubtedly remain high. It is not a secret that the U.S. and its allies intend to continue arming Ukraine for as long as it takes. Putin, however, reportedly believes that such a policy is not sustainable.
"Ukraine will soon stop using its own military equipment. It is using Western-made weapons more and more often. And you can hardly win a war with foreign weapons," Putin stressed.
Still, for Putin, economic stability at home seems to have priority over the situation in Ukraine. Putin claims that the inflation in Russia is lower than in many Western countries and that positive macroeconomic trends are "gaining momentum."
But the problem for Moscow is that the conflict in its neighboring country has already had a significant impact on the lives of residents of Russia's regions of Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk, who have learned to live under the constant shelling and artillery fire. The longer the hostilities last, the greater the chances that the conflict will eventually spill over into Russian territory. Quite aware of that, Putin seems ready to resume dialogue with the U.S., hoping that Moscow and Washington may reach a deal over Ukraine.
But the United States seems unwilling to negotiate with the Kremlin. Kyiv, on the other hand, may hold talks with Moscow only after it makes significant gains on the battlefield. Putin, however, claims that Ukraine stands "no chance" of a successful counteroffensive that it has recently launched.
Therefore, a long conventional conflict seems to be ahead of both Russia and Ukraine. Despite that, Moscow is expected to preserve the status quo in its economic, military, and foreign policies as long as possible.
Nikola Mikovic, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is a freelance journalist in Serbia. He covers mostly Russian, Ukrainian and Belarusian foreign policy issues and writes for multiple web magazines.
