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On May 23, the Japanese government officially announced that it's going to add 23 items to the list of regulated exports. According to Nikkei's report, these items include equipment used to manufacture extreme ultraviolet lithography and etching equipment for stacking memory devices in three dimensions. The measure is expected to take effect in July.
It's worth pondering why Japan is so eager to join the United States in jumping into the abyss.
Japan was once the world's largest supplier of semiconductors, providing more than half of the global supply. Now, it only occupies around 10 percent. And it's recognized that, while Japan remains at an advantage in certain areas of the industry, it lacks the ability to make the most advanced and cutting-edge chips like South Korea can.
We've seen Japan using the tension between China and the U.S. to advance its own agenda. For years, it has been using the U.S.'s fear of a rising China as an incentive to let the U.S. help Japan develop its military capabilities and loosen the restraints placed on it since the Second World War. When it comes to the semiconductor industry, its "loyalty" to the United States has earned it some rewards. Samsung Electronics from South Korea, Intel Corp and Micron Technology from the U.S. have recently announced billions of dollars of investment into Japan.
But this is not the answer to the problem. According to data from the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, the Chinese mainland has been the largest export destination for semiconductor equipment manufacturers in Japan. In 2022, Japan exported over 30 percent of its chip-making equipment to the Chinese mainland, reaching a total of nearly $5.9 billion. It's nearly twice as much as the U.S. did.
The Vice President of the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation Zhang Wei said that the Chinese mainland market contributes to about 20 to 30 percent of Japanese chip equipment makers' sales revenue. The export restriction would impact a dozen Japanese companies. A Financial Times report shows that Tokyo Electron, a Japanese company that's the third-largest semiconductor equipment supplier in the world, estimates the Japanese government's measures would cut 23 percent off of its annual revenue. Takamoto Suzuki, the head of economic research for Marubeni in China, told Reuters that the government's actions will "undermine the market development of Japanese companies and certainly reduce their competitiveness from a regulatory aspect."
Innovation doesn't come from a small gang of "like-minded" nations, but from scientifically and academically driven research and studies that are unhindered by geopolitical tensions or political differences.
Regardless of the restrictions, China is one of the world's most innovative and fast-developing countries. From 2012 to 2022, China's position on the Global Innovation Index soared from 34th to 11th with its economy contributing to over 30 percent of global economic growth. China is the second largest spending on R&D with the world's largest pool of R&D personnel. The number of China's high-tech companies increased from 49,000 to 400,000 over the past decade. And China remains the world's largest semiconductor market.
Hampering the relationship with China in exchange for short-term Western support is not a business that would yield a satisfactory rate of return in the long-run. Whether Japan likes it or not, China is its neighbor and will continue to have a significant political and economic impact on Japan.
Aligning itself closer and closer with America's anti-China agenda is irrational and self-devastating. As the world has witnessed over the past several years, American policy could change drastically overnight. And Japan wouldn't want to be left in the cold when that happens.
