中文
An Arab League (AL) extraordinary meeting held in Cairo, Egypt, May 7, 2023. [Photo/Xinhua]
By Bobby Naderi
The Arab League's foreign ministers have agreed to reinstate Syria's membership after its suspension more than 10 years ago. Syria's readmittance came ahead of a summit in Saudi Arabia later this month that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad may now attend.
The May 7 vote in the Arab League's headquarters in Cairo was made possible by the Chinese-brokered re-establishment of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which had backed opposing sides in the Syrian conflict. The translation is that China can communicate with Tehran and Riyadh in a way that the U.S. just cannot.
That was clear in China's contribution to their reconciliation, and it may well be the case in the Arab League's normalization process with Syria. For China, Syria's return into the Arab fold offers chances for yet another diplomatic triumph from which it has turned into a dependable ally in a geopolitical environment that is shifting away from America's mismatched expectations and misgivings.
Enhancing regional security partnership
The shift in the Arab League's view may strengthen the initiative in the region to normalize ties with President Bashar al-Assad's administration, which has been involved in a bloody conflict since 2011. Even Washington claims it supports the long-term goal of the Arab League to end the crisis despite misgivings about the Syrian government's resolve to take the necessary steps to end the conflict.
One result of the bloc's decision is the failure of the U.S. program to replace the Syrian government. Along with other allies, the U.S. had been assisting rebel groups in the northwest region of Idlib that were attempting to topple the Syrian government. Damascus now controls a significant area of Syria with the help of its allies Iran and Russia.
Another outcome of the decision is the potential for greater stability and security partnership in the region. By normalizing relations with Syria, countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates want to increase regional security and cooperation without the U.S. Their votes call for a solution to the crises caused by the conflict, including the flow of refugees to neighboring countries and the drug trade across the region.
To this end, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Lebanon, Egypt, and the secretary-general of the Arab League plan to form a ministerial committee to coordinate with the Syrian government and explore possibilities through reciprocal acts. Practical actions include keeping efforts to hasten the delivery of aid that would need to lift, or at a minimum relax, sanctions on Syria.
Also, the decision might influence how the West approaches Syria. The U.S. has kept up its sanctions against Syria and expressed skepticism about its willingness to work towards a diplomatic settlement. It's likely that Western countries will come under pressure to change their attitude towards Damascus. U.S. sanctions, according to a State Department spokesman, will yet remain fully in effect.
The reengagement of Syria may pave the way for other aspects of the country's international rehabilitation too, such as the possible easing of regional restrictions that have put the war-torn country in peril. It might make it easier for countries like Turkey to press for a new understanding, opening the door to connect more directly with Damascus. Turkey has an interest in supporting Syria's rehabilitation in order to reduce the cost of its intervention based on the argument that it would help address the Syrian refugee crisis.
Prospects for rehabilitation
Syria will need to rely on foreign funding for reconstruction through aid, credit, and investment because of the country's limited resources and the severe damage that the conflict has caused on its infrastructure and population. The challenge of rebuilding Syria is enormous and calls for tremendous financial and material resources.
The unwillingness of Western governments to assist reconstruction efforts is among Syria's biggest problems. They talk about ways to restore Syria without supporting or legitimizing the government. Damascus has responded by turning to Iran, China and Russia, whom it views as more empathetic and reliable partners. The capital-rich countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council and Arab League are also more likely to extend funds to the reconstruction process.
As the conflict turns toward de-escalation, Syria can go through a successful process of post-conflict reconstruction in light of the current normalization dynamics domestically and regionally. Rehabilitation is inevitable because its scope, pace, and scale can now depend on the oil-rich region's new geo-economic dynamics.
Despite the difficulties and divisions, Syria's destiny may be changed by the Arab League's decision to mend fences and support a legitimate effort of rebuilding and relief. Syria is on the path to normalization and the regional body might contribute to offering crucial financial resources for effective state-building and a long-term, sustainable, and balanced economic recovery. Syria's economic connections with China, which is already one of its primary trading partners, might potentially be strengthened as well.
In all instances, the Arab League's shift in discourse away from conflict is in line with United Nations Security Council Resolution 2254. The goal is to serve regional peace and international security interests and aid a population that has paid a devastating price for the West's unwillingness to invest in post-conflict diplomacy and reconstruction.
Bobby Naderi is a London-based journalist, guest contributor in print, radio and television, and documentary filmmaker.
