中文
By Gabriela Bernal
South Korea has decided to go all-in with the United States diplomatically. However, this move could have a negative impact on South Korea's own national interests as well as on the wider security and stability of the Northeast Asian region.
According to South Korea's presidential office, the main aim of the summit is to strengthen extended deterrence against the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) threats. There are concerns, however, that Yoon's overly one-sided diplomatic strategy in favor of the U.S. could do more harm than good both on the peninsula and in the region.
As a middle power, South Korea has long benefitted from adopting a balanced and strategic foreign policy that neither fully sides with nor isolates any one specific partner. This foreign policy line has become all the more crucial in recent decades with globalization making countries increasingly connected and interdependent. This is especially the case for South Korea, which is located in a complex geopolitical landscape, at the intersection of China, Japan, and the United States interests.
While the former Moon Jae-in administration was careful not to overly align itself with one side and instead adopted a cooperative approach involving various partners, the same cannot be said about the current Yoon Suk-yeol administration. Ever since taking office last May, Yoon has chosen to fully align his foreign policy in a way that benefits U.S. strategic goals in the region. The benefits for South Korea, however, are questionable.
Over the past year we have observed multiple negative consequences resulting from this diplomatic approach. For one, the Yoon government's hardline military stance, which is repeatedly reinforced through continuous military drills with the U.S., has failed to contribute to a diplomatic breakthrough with the DPRK. In fact, the current South Korean president seems to have erased most of the progress made in inter-Korean relations under his predecessor. Instead of creating an environment conducive for dialogue, Seoul has chosen to deepen military cooperation with both Washington and Tokyo which has, in turn, significantly contributed to raising tensions on the Korean Peninsula.
Although the Yoon government should be doing everything in its power to persuade the Biden administration to change its DPRK policy, it is doing the opposite and simply adding fuel to the fire of the ongoing vicious cycle of tit-for-tat military provocations on the peninsula. With DPRK seeing no credible signs of either the U.S. or the South moving in the direction of serious negotiations, it is inevitable that the diplomatic stalemate will continue.
Another negative consequence of South Korea blindly aligning itself with the U.S. is the hasty "improvement" of South Korea-Japan relations. Even though an improved relationship between Seoul and Tokyo would be beneficial in the long term, the way the current government is going about it is deeply flawed and will likely backfire. With the U.S. constantly pushing for improved South Korea-Japan ties, Seoul seems to have put Washington's interests before its own.
The Yoon government's rush to improve ties with Japan has resulted in playing down the importance of adequately resolving historical issues between the two countries, such as the comfort women issue and the forced labor matter. The recent third-party compensation deal, for example, was highly criticized for not honoring the grievances of the victims. Politicians called the deal a prime example of humiliating diplomacy.
Another example involves recent comments made by the South Korean president. In an interview with Reuters on April 18, Yoon publicly suggested the willingness to provide weapons to Ukraine for the first time, more than a year after ruling out the possibility of lethal aid. This immediately resulted in the rapid worsening of relations with Russia, which is not in South Korea's best interest given Moscow's influence on Pyongyang, which could be used to better inter-Korean ties and defuse tensions.
If this policy line is continued, tensions with DPRK are likely to rise, military confrontation on the peninsula will become more likely, South Korea's relations with major countries like China and Russia will continue to deteriorate, and a Cold War-like bloc structure consisting of the U.S., South Korea, and Japan will lead to further divisions and military tensions in the region.
It is important for the South Korean side to approach talks while keeping the broader, long-term picture in mind. Given South Korea's unique geopolitical position and the global risks at stake on the Korean Peninsula, the foreign policy line chosen by Seoul is crucial not just to its domestic interests but also to the stability of the region and the world.
Gabriela Bernal, a Korean analyst and a Ph.D. student at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, South Korea.
