中文
By Wang Hongyi
The American geostrategist Zbigniew Brzezinski in "The Grand Chessboard" warned that "Ukraine is a strategic pivot in the U.S. Eurasian chess game, and if Ukraine loses its independence, Poland can take its place." This geopolitical strategy seems to be playing out.
No U.S. president has visited Warsaw twice in less than a year since the East European upheaval. Especially as the one-year anniversary of the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict approaches, U.S. President Joe Biden's trip to Warsaw on February 21 not only injected Poland and other countries on NATO's eastern flank with a strong dose of collective security assurance, but reinforced Poland's position as a strategic pivot for the U.S. to expand its extended deterrence against Russia.
Once Ukraine is forced to become a "discard" in the U.S. Eurasian chess game, Poland can take over as a new agent for Washington to maintain its hegemonic position to curb Russia to the east and disrupting the political integration of the EU to the West.
Biden's visit to Warsaw instead of Berlin and Paris on the anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine conflict reflects the eastward shift of the U.S. strategic reliance on Europe, making Poland's role as a potential leader of the new Europe in the Russia-Ukraine conflict more prominent. As the staunchest U.S. ally in the transatlantic relationship, Poland's security situation is a direct test of the credibility of the U.S.-led NATO collective security guarantee. As Biden said during his meeting with Polish President Andrzej Duda on February 21, "The United States needs Poland and NATO as much as NATO needs the United States."
The talks also touched on energy security, the NATOization process in Finland and Sweden, and more assistance for Ukraine. Biden reiterated plans to establish a permanent U.S. Forces Command Europe in the country, to be announced as early as the NATO summit in Madrid, Spain, on June 2022. The trend supports the Polish right-wing government's desire for European great power status since 2015. The combination of Poland's right-wing aspirations for great power status and its extreme "Russophobia" allows the U.S. to incite Poland's government to play a "vanguard" role in Eastern Europe.
The political considerations of Biden's trip are more diverse than from his March 2022 visit to Warsaw. When meeting with Duda, Biden met briefly with Donald Tusk, one of leaders of Poland's largest opposition party. Although the meeting was short, it had special political implication.
The U.S. move is motivated by political balance and stability of U.S.-Polish relations. On the second day of his trip, Biden also held a meeting with the leaders of the Bucharest Nine Initiative countries (Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia), which are located at the front of NATO's eastern flank, which remained focused on the solid security defense of NATO's eastern flank and extended deterrence against Russia. This mechanism was initiated by Poland and Romania in 2015 to strengthen the security defense of NATO's eastern flank after the outbreak of the Crimean crisis in 2014.
Biden's visit is mainly about political posturing. History serves as a mirror to reality, as former U.S. President Barack Obama's speech back in 2014 during the Crimean crisis emphasized the "unbreakable" U.S. alliance with Poland and pledged to defend America's Eastern European allies. But the geo-security environment facing Poland and other Eastern European countries has worsened.
Biden's meeting with Duda and his speech at the Royal Castle in Warsaw were not without platitudes, such as praising Poland's extraordinary efforts in supporting Ukraine and defending self-made democracy. Biden is reaffirming his security commitments to Poland, the Baltics and all NATO's eastern flank countries.
Nonetheless, such untested commitments may leave Poland in a transient and empty security illusion, and the so-called "Polish" moment in the Eurasian chess game is ultimately just a fungible "pawn" in the service of U.S. hegemony.
Wang Hongyi is a researcher at the Center for Central and Eastern European Studies, Beijing Foreign Studies University.
