US continues raising stakes in Eastern Europe

By Nikola Mikovic

Russia demands the withdrawal of all U.S.-NATO military equipment from Ukraine, and wants the UN Security Council to ask for an independent inquiry into the explosions on the Nord Stream pipelines. 

The West, for its part, continues supplying the Eastern European country with all kinds of weapons, showing no signs of fear of a potential Russian response. But will that lead to an escalation of the Ukraine conflict?

According to Russian President Vladimir Putin, the West's goal is an "unlimited power," which is why, in his view, the United States and NATO have been "rapidly deploying their military bases, secret biolabs, preparing Ukraine for a large war near our [Russian] borders."

"The more long-range weaponry the West supplies to Kyiv, the further we will be forced to drive that weaponry away from our borders," the Russian leader said during his speech to the Russian parliament on February 21.

Previously, on February 3, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Russian forces would respond to the delivery of longer-range Western weapons to Kyiv by "trying to push Ukrainian forces further away from its borders to create a safe buffer zone."

But that could be easier said than done, given that the West remains resolute in arming Ukraine as long as it takes. While Putin was addressing the Russian elite, the European Union announced its plans to finance weapons for Ukraine via its own budget.

Additionally, Japan decided to provide additional financial support of $5.5 billion to Kyiv, while U.S. President Joe Biden said Washington would offer $500 million in additional military aid to Ukraine. Indeed, as Putin stressed, NATO declared its aim to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia.

The Kremlin is more focused on preserving the internal stability in Russia than on responding to the Western and Ukrainian military actions. During his speech, Putin paid much attention to the Russian economy, as well as to social issues, pointing out that the Russian businessmen have a choice – to be "second-class" people in the West or to be with their homeland. He also called on them to invest in Russia, and not in "elite real estate,""yachts" or "consuming Western goods.""No ordinary citizens felt sorry for those who lost their foreign assets and invested in yachts and palaces," Putin said, referring to the Western confiscation of properties belonging to some Russian oligarchs.

He also accused the West of "stealing the Russian gold and forex reserves," although it remains unclear why Moscow did not withdraw its assets from the Western countries before it launched the special military operation in Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Now that the U.S. and the EU have confiscated the Russian money frozen in their banks, they may eventually give Kyiv billions of dollars they "stole" from Russia.

Putin insists that Russia cannot be defeated on the battlefield. But the West will continue helping Ukraine to launch a major military offensive in the foreseeable future, which means the conflict in the Eastern European country is unlikely to be resolved anytime soon.

Instead, the U.S. and its allies would continue "raising the stakes," and crossing Moscow's "red lines," both politically and militarily. Putin has suggested the Kremlin will respond by suspending Russia's participation in the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty – a landmark nuclear arms reduction treaty between the United States and Russia. Does that mean the world will soon find itself in another Cuban missile crisis?

The Russian Foreign Ministry summoning U.S. Ambassador to Russia Lynne Tracy after Putin's speech indicates that bilateral relations will remain tense. Under current circumstances, a normalization of ties between Russia and the United States seems unlikely.

From the U.S. perspective, withdrawing military equipment from Ukraine, or providing any explanations to Moscow about the Nord Stream pipelines blasts, would make Washington look weak. That's why American strategic planners will pursue their current geopolitical strategy regarding Russia, hoping that it will force Moscow to back down in Ukraine.

Biden's visit to Kyiv on February 20 signals that America does not intend to give up on its support to the Eastern European country. For the foreseeable future, the Eastern European country will continue to serve as a battlefield where Russia and the West, namely the United States, will keep fighting the proxy war.  

Nikola Mikovic is a freelance journalist based in Serbia. He covers mostly Russian, Ukrainian and Belarusian foreign policy issues and writes for multiple web magazines.