中文
The European Union flags in front of EU headquarters in Brussels, Belgium. [Photo/Xinhua]
By Ann Buel
The worsening geopolitical situation, which is pushing the world toward unchartered waters, and the corruption scandals in European Union institutions, mainly in the European Parliament, along with the uncertainty over the European Parliament elections in May 2024, have forced the EU to do some introspection and limit its interference in other countries — such as Qatar and Morocco which are facing investigation by Belgian juridical authorities.
But the biggest factor which has increased geopolitical uncertainties is the Russia-Ukraine conflict, especially because there is no sign of its ending. The trend in the EU, which seems to have narrowly escaped a major economic recession, however moving toward high savings, because the job market is expected to worsen and bankruptcies increase due to high interest rates.
On the other hand, China has lifted its strict COVID-19 prevention and control policy, "re-opening" up its economy, which is widely forecast to grow around 5.5 percent in 2023 and thus greatly contribute to the global economy. Hopefully, this could help the EU and the United States to escape the economic recession which many economists have forecast or at least soften its impact.
According to Alicia Garcia-Herrero, a member of Bruegel, a Brussels-based think tank, China is certainly heading back on a growth trajectory.. The scholar said the bulk of China's growth should come from the recovery of consumption, followed by some recovery in investment as sentiment improves.
In this respect, global economic growth depends, to a large extent, on China, because it is arguably the only fast-growing major economy which can make major contributions to world economic growth.
These facts were known by all parties during the meetings Wang Yi, director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, had with officials of France, Italy, Hungary and Russia during his visit to those countries from Feb 14 to 22, and the just concluded Munich Security Conference, where he communicated the vision of common, comprehensive, cooperative, and sustainable security advocated by President Xi Jinping. By doing so, Wang also made clear China's abiding commitment to peaceful development.
So what will future EU-China relations be like? Future Sino-EU ties will not only be affected by the recent challenges, but also depend on those who will head the EU institutions after the next European Parliament election in 2024 as well as the EU's foreign policy.
According to Peter Hefele, policy director of the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies, the official think tank of the European People's Party, the EU's largest political party, the European Union has been struggling to play its due geopolitical role in the "Indo-Pacific region", which the US is trying to build into its backyard.
Hefele has said that the danger to the EU's external trade policies now comes from increasing (green) protectionism, which threatens to offset the achievements of economic globalization. That's why, he suggests, countries should safeguard the benefits of globalization while engaging in temporary or permanent cooperation to address common global issues countries such as climate change, outer space, and subsidies.
The global fight against climate change should unite countries across the world. And the countries should use their foreign, social, economic, and other policies to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. In this respect, both the US and China have an important role to play in influencing the EU's policies, especially those aimed at resolving global and regional issues. For example, if the EU considers China as a systemic rival, it will have to prove that its development model is better and more successful than China's.
On a more concrete note, at the recent event hosted by the European Policy Centre in Brussels, China's ambassador to the EU Fu Cong talked about the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment which is yet to be ratified by the EU despite the two sides concluding the negotiations on the agreement in December 2020.
"We know that the world economy is not going through a very good time, and some European businesspeople have some complaints about the access to the Chinese market," Fu said. "But actually, this agreement is just to solve all these concerns, especially given the current circumstances."
Europe-China relations are facing many constraints now, and it is not easy to change course. What both sides could do is to enhance open, in-depth, and effective communication through all channels, keep the business relationship going and ensure it is mutually beneficial, while increasing cooperation and coordination on global challenges such as climate change and ocean governance.
The author is a former officer of the European Commission.
