中文
By Timothy Kerswell
The United States, Japan and the European Union are undergoing a diminished status on the world stage, while confronting more difficult socio-political problems at home. The collective West has turned to a "Guns before Butter" doctrine, which would make the world much more dangerous, while increasing political polarization and other social problems.
The U.S. is spending big on defense. Despite the circumstances, U.S. Congress announced another 8 percent increase for defense last December. The plan puts the U.S. defense budget at an eye-watering $858 billion. U.S. President Joe Biden is expected to announce the largest defense budget in human history in the coming days.
It's incredible and comes at a time when internal social and economic problems plague the U.S. while it has zero existential threats. The United States is seldom in the news for a good reason. Issues with race relations, police brutality, homelessness, an opioid crisis, and a healthcare crisis are just some problems that create daily headlines worldwide.
Yet, if we reflect on the bigger picture, it's a volatile society. A cynical, but more plausible view of U.S. foreign policy is that the U.S. is papering over its social problems by appealing to the "rally around the flag effect," provoking international crisis in exchange for gaining domestic political support.
Japan has also increased its military spending for the past 10 consecutive years. Tokyo has set a record defense budget. Japan's goal is to meet the NATO standard of 2 percent of GDP (gross domestic product) by 2027. This is a departure from its post-war spending at around 1 percent of GDP.
If Japan does accomplish this goal, it would require an increase in defense spending by 56 percent in the next five years. This would also make Japan the third-largest military spender in the world. Japan's so-called peace constitution, remains in force on paper, but looks more meaningless.
The EU aims to raise its defense spending to 70 billion euros ($75 billion) by 2025, while there are rising concerns over European domestic social stability, such as aging populations, rising housing costs, migration issues and high unemployment levels. Increased European defense spending will spur the EU to project its power beyond its borders, such as with its adventurism in Ukraine by funding a conflict to which it is not directly a party to.
But what will this achieve? Even with its best efforts, the collective West can't challenge the core interests of its adversaries. The likely outcome is that other countries will eventually match these increases in defense expenditures. Accordingly, the risk of a miscalculation between countries could be catastrophic.
The U.S. spends big on defense to preserve the Western-led hegemony over the world. But the Western concept of hegemony is just hubris. The world has already entered a multipolarity stage where the U.S., Japan and European Union remain important countries, but suffer from an identity crisis. This would heighten global insecurity.
Former U.S. President and General Dwight Eisenhower warned against the "acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex." Unfortunately, his warnings went unheeded, and today, the powerful defense industries have become the primary drivers behind Western foreign policy. The defense contractors of the U.S. do not simply provide a government service, but lobby for policies to generate instability and conflict beyond the U.S.
Increased defense spending by the collective West combines reflects dangerous ideas and interests. Politicians with no policy solutions, defense companies who profit from the export of crisis, media organizations who sensationalize conflict and exaggerate threats, and think tanks funded by dubious sources while pretending to offer independent policy advice.
Certainly, the collective West needed a road to recovery after several bad economic years, mismanagement of COVID-19 and a declining position on the world stage, but old habits die hard. Recent developments on defense spending demonstrate that even if the West can't be a hegemon, the danger is that it can still think and act like one.
Timothy Kerswell is a research fellow at the Chinese University of Hong Kong (Shenzhen). He lived in Macao for seven years, working as an assistant professor at the University of Macao.
