中文
By Wang Junrong
The U.S. President Joe Biden on October 6 invoked "Armageddon" to deliver a stark warning about Russian President Vladimir Putin potentially using nuclear weapons when speaking at a Democratic Party fundraiser in New York. Biden said Putin was "a guy I know fairly well" and the Russian leader was "not joking when he talks about the use of tactical nuclear weapons or biological or chemical weapons." "We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban Missile Crisis," he added. "I don't think there is any such a thing as the ability to easily use a tactical nuclear weapon and not end up with Armageddon."
"If the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people," Putin said in a televised address late last month. He added, "Those who try to blackmail us with nuclear weapons should know that the prevailing winds can turn in their direction."
Reminiscent of the prior Cold War, the specter of "nuclear Armageddon" looms large since Biden has pitted the U.S. against Russia in a possible mutually-annihilating nuclear war. At a time when de-escalation is direly needed in Ukraine, the paranoid rhetoric is daring Russia to use nuclear weapons. The U.S. has been pouring oil on the fire since the start of the Ukraine conflict in order to achieve its foreign policy and strategic goals, while placing Europe and much of the world in greater peril.
Now that the attritional conflict in Ukraine has come to a stalemate where both sides stand unwilling to back down, there seems to be no light of peace at the end of the tunnel. Does the U.S. want to embolden Ukraine and to dissuade Kyiv from engaging in any meaningful negotiations with Moscow? Does Washington hope the conflict spirals to a point of no return, to reach the stage of an all-out nuclear war between the world's two most heavily nuclear-armed powers, namely "nuclear Armageddon?"
An all-out nuclear war is the worst possible scenario for humanity, leading to mutually assured destruction. The U.S. and Russia can't win a nuclear war without facing a doomed fate. However, the grave truth is that the current conflict in Ukraine has the potential to spin out of control and drag humanity into "nuclear Armageddon," since history has never been forged by rationality as presumed in the so-called game theory, but by non-linear twists and turns, manifested by miscalculations and overreactions between rival parties. So, why does the West, especially the U.S., keep poking the Russian bear?
Russia may be relatively weak economically compared with the U.S., but it's still a nuclear-armed power that is capable of annihilating its adversaries with its massive nuclear stockpile and well-equipped delivery platforms if it deems its territorial integrity, national security and very existence are at stake.
Turning a blind eye to Russia's legitimate security concerns, the U.S.-led NATO's relentless eastward expansion in the last several decades after the end of the Cold War has not only squeezed Russia's geopolitical and strategic space but humiliated the Kremlin as a still-relevant great power. As to the current conflict in Ukraine, it's convenient for Western bystanders with ideological or geopolitical biases to be judgmental. But if the arrogant West, especially the U.S., refuses to sense the dynamics of human history with some degree of humility and to put themselves into Russia's shoes, they would bear the consequences for their hegemonic mentality and obsession for one-sided security. Should there be a real nuclear showdown, labelling Russia as the sole villain makes no sense at all.
But how could the world avoid "nuclear Armageddon?" For the moment, there's a lopsided world order that's been driven by bloc politics and ideological bias. This needs to be overhauled, to ensure that all sovereign countries' reasonable national interests and security concerns are respected in a fair manner. When it comes to the development and use of nuclear weapons, nuclear nonproliferation and arms control treaties among countries are far from enough, and for the sake of jointly preserving human civilization and building a human community with a shared future, nuclear-armed powers should demonstrate audacious leadership to work together for a world free of nuclear weapons, to liberate humanity from the haunting horror of "nuclear Armageddon," forevermore.
Wang Junrong is an assistant researcher at the Institute of Strategic Studies, Shanghai Jiao Tong University.
