中文
By Djoomart Otorbaev
Renewable energy sources will play a vital role in the global transition to clean energy and will be the main factor in keeping the average temperature increase on the planet below 1.5 degrees Celsius. Globally, renewable energy annual capacity increased more than fourfold from 754 gigawatts (GW) to 3,064 GW from 2000 to 2021. But will such impressive growth be enough to achieve carbon neutrality by the middle of the century?
While hydropower continues to account for the largest share of total global renewable generation capacity at 1,230 GW, statistics show that solar and wind continue to dominate new generation capacity growth. Together, both technologies accounted for 88 percent of new renewable capacity in 2021, with solar power generation up 19 percent and offshore wind power generation up 13 percent.
This growth has been driven by important policy decisions, improved technology, economies of scale and better supply chains. But most importantly, this growth was caused by the dropping in production costs. Between 2010 and 2022, electricity costs from solar photovoltaic (PV) installations fell by 90 percent and for onshore wind installations by 68 percent. In 2018, the global average levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) value of onshore wind power fell below the level of the cheapest fossil fuel, ranging from $0.05 to $0.15 per kWh, while electricity generation from solar photovoltaic sources achieved this result in 2020.
What was critically important is that the cost of electricity generated by new solar and wind installations has become cheaper than that of existing coal-fired power plants, a key milestone on the road to reducing carbon emissions. Experts have calculated that replacing coal-fired power plants will reduce annual costs by $32 billion per year and reduce annual carbon dioxide emissions by about three gigatons of carbon dioxide.
Although 2022 is not over yet, it is already setting a record year for increasing renewable energy capacity. The annual increase in generating power from renewable energy sources is expected to reach340 GW this year. Who has contributed the most to this progress?
In 2021, China again became the most prominent new onshore wind capacity market, with a 41 percent share of global production. The offshore wind power market, which grew by 6 GW in 2020, has experienced massive growth, with an additional 21 GW in 2021, which was mainly driven by growth from China. It had increased its new capacity in this segment by 5.7 times from an already record-breaking 2020, adding 17.4 GW in 2021. China was also the most significant growth market for solar PV additions, accounting for an estimated 35 percent of the global increase.
Citing Yi Yuechun, deputy dean of the China Renewable Energy Engineering Institute, a center backed by the National Energy Administration, Bloomberg reported that China is set to receive a record 156 GW of additional electricity in 2022 from wind turbines and solar panels. It will be a 25 percent jump from the previous record set last year or 46 percent from global growth this year. These figures will be made up of 100 GW solar, 50 GW onshore wind and 6 GW offshore wind. In the first five months of this year, China added about 35 GW of wind and solar power, and installations are expected to accelerate significantly towards the end of the year.
However, the announced measures will not be enough to achieve the Net Zero Emissions (NZE) goal by 2050. In 2021, global renewable electricity production increased 7 percent from a year earlier. In 2022, despite the rising cost of raw materials, the total capacity of new installations is expected to grow by an additional 8 percent. But under the NZE scenario, the share of renewable energy production should increase to more than 60 percent by 2030. In this case, its annual production should increase during 2022-2030 by an average of more than 12 percent.
Understanding this challenge, the leading countries have announced even more ambitious programs this year. In June 2022, China released its 14th five-year plan for renewable energy, which includes an ambitious goal of reaching 33 percent of its electricity generation from renewables by 2025, up from about 29 percent in 2020. And 18 percent of all electricity will be produced by wind and solar technologies. In August 2022, the U.S. government introduced the Inflation Reduction Act, which will greatly expand support for renewables over the next 10 years through tax credits and a range of other measures. In July 2021, the European Commission proposed an even more ambitious target to increase the share of renewable energy generation by 2030 from 32 to 40 percent. Many European countries have further stepped up their plans to support renewable energy sources in response to the current energy crisis. During the COP26 summit held in Glasgow in November 2021, India announced new targets, including bringing its total non-fossil fuel generation capacity to 500 GW and achieving a 50 percent share of electricity generation from renewable sources by 2030. Will they be able to achieve their goals?
It can be summarized that renewable energy production continues to grow at an unprecedented rate, but still, it will not be enough to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. What specific efforts should the world community, and above all, the leading countries, take now to achieve this goal? It will be discussed in subsequent pieces on this topic.
Djoomart Otorbaev is the former prime minister of the Kyrgyz Republic, a distinguished professor of the Belt and Road School of Beijing Normal University, and a member of the Nizami Ganjavi International Center.
