中文
By Wang Junrong
The war of attrition in Ukraine has entered an apparent stalemate where either side stands unwilling to back down. Russia could feel cornered into a very difficult situation, as Russian President Vladimir Putin called up and mobilized 300,000 reserve forces for the country's special military operation in Ukraine on September 21, with a veiled threat of using nuclear weapons.
"If the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people," Putin said in his speech on September 22. Addressing the potential for escalation and use of nuclear weapons, Putin said: "Those who try to blackmail us with nuclear weapons should know that the prevailing winds can turn in their direction."
Meanwhile, regarding the referendums of four regions on joining Russia, the four regions appeared to vote overwhelmingly in favor of joining the Russian Federation, though Western and Ukrainian governments rejected them as allegedly "a sham."
Apparently, the already complicated and tricky situation, may soon take a turn for the worse. But at a time when de-escalation is now more urgent than ever, what Washington is doing is only prodding Moscow with coercive and bombastic rhetoric, apart from its continuous and intensive military support to the Ukrainian military, effectively discouraging Kyiv from engaging in any meaningful de-escalating negotiations with the Russian side. "It's very important that Moscow hear from us and know from us that the consequences would be horrific. And we've made that very clear," U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said during an interview with CBS News.
U.S. politicians are savvy enough to know that daring Russia to use nuclear weapons with coercion is the least reasonable method to dissuade Russia from actually using them, given that the U.S. failed to deter Russia from launching its special military operation in Ukraine by using the same foolish tactics in the first place back in February.
Coercion or deterrence seldom works and always turns into a self-fulfilled prophesy of doom, especially between superpowers when core national interests are at stake, since it would make the other side look weak. So it's within the scope of reasonable doubt to say that the U.S. could be deliberately prodding Russia to take further aggressive actions or even using nuclear weapons, in order to manipulate and leverage the crisis to its own advantage.
The U.S.'s strategic intention has never been about vanquishing Russia's military forces on the battlefield, but to implement a proxy war to weaken and strangle Russia via multiple wars all at once.
Beyond that, the U.S. has engaged in numerous non-military activities against Russia since the start of the conflict, including an economic war by imposing tough sanctions on Russia, a propaganda war by harnessing the Western media's disinformation and blaming campaigns, as well as Western leaders' sanctimonious and self-righteous rhetoric, a diplomatic war by pressuring other neutral countries to pick sides, and a moral war by villainizing Russia and its leaders, especially Russian President Putin, while turning a blind eye to Russia's reasonable security concerns over NATO's provocative eastward expansion in the last several decades, which not only has gravely squeezed Russia's geopolitical and strategic space but humiliated Russia as a great power.
The conflict in Ukraine appears to be a "windfall" for the besieged Biden administration. U.S. officials are keen to use the conflict to divert public attention away from its multiple domestic woes, such as the lingering COVID-19 pandemic, surging inflation rates and a looming recession, Biden's ugly approval ratings, ceaseless gun violence, volatile financial and real estate markets as well as a former president who refuses to retreat from the political center stage, especially as the mid-term elections draw near and tensions between the Democratic Party and Republican Party flare up.
The Biden administration is also keen to use the conflict in Ukraine to sensationalize the threat from Russia and to consolidate the NATO alliance and the U.S.'s diminishing global leadership, especially after the Donald Trump administration had almost eviscerated it.
At a time when the world is facing a series of widespread crises and needs to jointly build a human community with a shared future more than ever before, a nuclear crisis is the last thing people want right now. So, why does the U.S. keep poking the bear in its eyes? Well, by prodding Russia into taking more aggressive steps, Washington is clinging on to its hegemonic mentality and ulterior strategic agenda. Accordingly the international community should be wary of such foolhardy ambitions by the U.S.
Wang Junrong is an assistant researcher at the Institute of Strategic Studies, Shanghai Jiao Tong University.
