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By Thomas O. Falk
Italy's right-wing bloc is by far the strongest force in the new parliament. However, the election result has consequences far beyond Italy and shows that the European Union still fails to take concerns seriously.
Giorgia Meloni, party leader of Italy's Fratelli d'Italia," is ahead with her right-wing alliance after the parliamentary elections in Italy and is likely to lead the future government. Together with Matteo Salvini's right-wing Lega and Silvio Berlusconi's Christian Democratic Forza Italia, they have an absolute majority of the votes.
The reason for this result, as in many other European countries, is apparent: Italians are unhappy and frustrated with the political class. Added to this are the energy crisis, inflation, a loss of control over immigration and fears about the future.
However, it would be too easy to explain the result with internal problems alone. The EU also plays a role. The EU is considered by many in Italy to be aloof, too opaque, and above all committed to the interests of capital – a haven of formulaic compromises, far removed from the real problems of the people in the individual member countries, which is reflected above all in the fact that European law takes precedence over the national stands.
Slowly but steadily, Europe is crumbling. For the EU, cooperation with Italy will now become more complex, meaning unity in Europe, especially on migration issues, the Stability and Growth Pact reform, and the internal market will become even harder to achieve.
Germany and France are currently holding the EU together, but for how long? French President Emmanuel Macron's narrow election victory showed that even one of the bloc's leaders is not impervious to a rethinking process across most member states. In fact, a bloc is currently being formed within the EU with Italy, Hungary and Poland aiming to restructure the EU on the basis of national independence. It is not yet enough to organize majorities at the EU level.
Nonetheless, the EU is drifting apart, although its member states would have to move closer together in times of an unprecedented tangle of crises. This is the only way the EU can work positively due to its legal situation.
Instead, we will now see how this drifting apart will further paralyze the work of the EU. One must not forget: the unanimity principle applies in the Union. Decisions can only be made if all 27 member states vote for them. Germany's chancellor, Olaf Scholz, recently announced plans to abolish unanimity in foreign and financial policy. The new Italian government would cut itself in the foot should it agree.
The EU faces various challenges. But regardless of whether its climate, migration, health crises or geopolitical issues, since September 25 it has become even more difficult for Europe to find a consensus on relevant topics. The point of migration, in particular, is and remains a significant problem in Europe that many governments simply do not (want to) realize. In Italy, Hungary and Poland now have an ally who will also oppose the EU's ill-advised migration and refugee policies.
In the EU, of course, people don't like to see that. Even before the election, there was a foretaste of the future tone between the EU and Rome. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized that the EU had "tools" at hand in the event of problems with Italy. She referred to Hungary and Poland, against whom the Commission intends to take billions in funding cuts and legal proceedings in the rule of law dispute.
But more bickering also means less consensus and more stagnation in a time of global challenges.
The fact that this is also self-inflicted is too seldom mentioned. Most newscasts across Europe were quick to explain away – via its default direction – the election in Italy by calling people extremist and fascists. But as most educated people will concur: there is no simple answer to a complex problem.
It seems apparent that many European countries and their people are no longer willing to receive directives from the EU that do not help them in their daily lives. These people elect politicians who promise them a U-turn or a turn away from politics altogether. Instead of condemning parties and electorates, the EU ought to question its own policies that continue to divide Europe.
And Italy is not just any member. It is a founding member and the third largest state in the EU and is one of the net contributors – Italy pays more money to the EU than it receives back from there. This is not a good omen for the future of the Union.
The EU can only function if it sticks together. But that hasn't been the case for a long time and will hardly be possible in the foreseeable future, considering that the EU on September 25 has once again shown its unwillingness to recognize its very own responsibilities for the political situation across the continent.
Thomas O. Falk is a London-based political analyst and commentator. He holds a Master of Arts in international relations from the University of Birmingham and specializes in U.S. affairs.
