中文
By Djoomart Otorbaev
Chinese President Xi Jinping plans to pay a state visit to Kazakhstan on Sept 14, and then visit Uzbekistan, where on Sept 15-16 he will take part in the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Samarkand. These visits mark the first trip of the Chinese leader abroad since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the beginning of this year has already been marked by important events in the relations between the countries of Central Asia and China.
The Chinese President and the leaders of all five Central Asian countries held a virtual summit on January 25, 2022, marking the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations. At the meeting, the presidents discussed the results of joint work and outlined the horizons for further cooperation. It should be noted that next year marks ten years since the start of the global Belt and Road Initiative, which was first announced in Central Asia in 2013. During the virtual meeting, the Chinese President presented five concrete proposals for future cooperation with Central Asia.
The first set of priorities was related to the deepening of neighbourly relations. The participants agreed to launch new cooperation mechanisms and develop relations based on the principles of friendship, sincerity, mutual benefit and inclusiveness. Xi Jinping specially mentioned that in its external affairs China opposes interference in the internal affairs of countries under various pretexts.
Second, the participants decided to strengthen their economic relations. The Chinese leader stressed that China is ready to open its markets for goods and services from Central Asia. By 2030, China has plans to bring the annual volume of mutual trade to $70 billion. For comparison, according to the Ministry of Commerce of China, the volume of trade between China and the countries of Central Asia in the first 11 months of 2021 amounted to approximately $45 billion dollars. To achieve better connectivity new logistics and trade corridors between the countries will be built. The development of a feasibility study and the construction of a new China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway route will be accelerated. It is expected that during the SCO summit in Samarkand, three heads of state will sign an agreement on the construction of this railway.
Thirdly, special attention will be paid to ensuring regional security and deepening cooperation in countering terrorism, radicalization, separatism and cyber threats. Countries decided to pay particular attention to stabilizing the situation in Afghanistan. It is essential to note that Afghanistan was first mentioned as part of greater Central Asia. The Chinese President reiterated that China supports the establishment of an inclusive government in Afghanistan and freeing the country from terrorism and terrorist organizations. The leaders of the countries of Central Asia have repeatedly noted that the establishment of peace and stability in Afghanistan should be a priority in the development of this country.
The fourth recommendation was devoted to strengthening cultural and humanitarian ties between the countries. Xi Jinping suggested opening joint cultural centres in the countries and said that China would like to turn Central Asia into a vibrant centre for visits by Chinese tourists. He announced that China will provide more university scholarships for students from Central Asia.
And finally, the Chinese leader announced that under the UN program on the Sustainable Development Goals for the period up to 2030, his country will provide a grant to the countries of Central Asia in the amount of 500 million US dollars.
It is important to note that despite the growth of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Central Asia, their share in GDP remains lower compared to other developing regions. The Boston Consulting Group estimates that between 2008 and 2016, total FDI in Central Asia amounted to 18.2 percent of the region's average annual GDP. For example, FDI in North Africa reached 26.8 percent, in Central America - 35.9 percent, and in the Balkans - 47.2 percent (Boston Consulting Group, 2019).
It is easy to notice that the North African and Balkan territories are close to the borders with the EU, and Central America is close to the borders with the US. It is these two centres of global economic power that channel much of their FDI to the neighbouring regions. But the Chinese economy is on par with the economies of the EU and the US. The question arises - can China invest more in its adjacent territories, as other economically strong countries have done in their neighbouring regions, and become a leader in FDI in Central Asia? The presented figures show that there are ample opportunities here.
According to the latest statistics, this year the Chinese economy is experiencing an investment boom. In August 2022, Bloomberg reported that only Chinese mainland companies have raised a record $58 billion in initial public offerings (IPOs) this year, compared to $19 billion raised in the US and $9.9 billion in Europe (Bloomberg, 2022). Considering China's economic power and its geographic, political and economic proximity to Central Asia, the untapped potential for cooperation becomes apparent. The implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative opens up unlimited possibilities for this. The multifaceted cooperation of our countries has broad prospects.
The author is a professor of Belt and Road School at Beijing Normal University and former prime minister of Kyrgyz Republic.
