中文
By Colin Speakman
It seems that the United Kingdom's new Prime Minister, Liz Truss, will be the least supportive of China of any of the last four Conservative prime ministers. David Cameron helped forge a "Golden Era" of UK- China relations, saying he wanted to be Beijing's closest friend in the West. Teresa May, inheriting the huge task of negotiating a Brexit deal, needed to show the benefits of the UK's future ability to negotiate its own free trade deals with China the obvious example. The relationship soured during Boris Johnson's premiership, but he admitted to be fervently Sinophile, much aided by his visit to Beijing as Mayor of London.
Liz Truss, however, was not elected through a general election, but Conservative Party members voted for a continuity candidate who had remained loyal to the outgoing prime minister, Boris Johnson. More importantly, Liz Truss was the Foreign Secretary under Johnson and her views on the UK-China relationship are unlikely to change. The new prime minister has appointed James Cleverly as the new Foreign Secretary, providing continuity as he worked for Liz Truss as a Minister of State in the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office. She has also appointed a known China hawk in Tom Tugendhat as Security Minister.
In Liz Truss we clearly have a leader who wants to be tough on China. As Foreign Secretary at a G7 meeting of foreign ministers in 2021, she convinced her counterparts to include a line in the closing communique that condemned China's economic policies. In a 2020-21 Integrated Review of UK defense and foreign policy, the analysis of China was a mixture of "threats and opportunities" – concerns about differences in values and security issues, but recognizing the benefits of cooperation in trade and climate change. In her last week of campaigning for the Conservative Party leadership, Liz Truss said she would change the conclusion of that Integrated Review to declare China explicitly as a threat on a par with Russia.
This positioning comes at a time when the UK is struggling with a huge cost of living crisis with inflation predicted to reach 13 percent or higher and needing to spend tens of billions of pounds on subsidies for rapidly rising energy costs. Liz Truss' plan is to pay for this in future years through economic growth, though the UK's economic growth has been weak for decades.
China has made a significant contribution to the low inflation that the UK and other Western nations have enjoyed for several decades thanks to its ability to supply many products worldwide at affordable prices. Now is not the time to put that at risk. The ability of the UK to grow needs both investment and trade – China is a leading provider of outbound foreign investment and a key player in trade opportunities.
It is expected that the UK will be able to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership and this will be a major trade opportunity with Asia-Pacific nations, but China is the most important member of it and cooperation will be important.
Overall, given the challenges the UK faces, as the nation mourns the loss of its sovereign of 70 years, as millions of families face unprecedented economic pains, as many workers are striking for pay increases and the National Health Service struggles with providing many services, one has to ask – Is now really the time to sour an economic relationship with China? A more pragmatic approach is needed.
Colin Speakman is an economist from the UK and an international educator specializing in China.
