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By Thomas O. Falk
Amid Britain's severe crises, the country has gotten trapped into a power vacuum, with the sitting Prime Minister Boris Johnson unwilling to govern and his potential successors too preoccupied to hit the ground running. Britain has been stumbling with a massive drop in real wages, an explosion of energy costs, sky-high inflation, railway worker strikes and fragile supply chains but without a real leader this summer.
According to the Office for National Statistics, the Consumer Price Index rose to 10.1 percent in July – marking the highest value in 40 years and the highest value within the G7 countries. For comparison: In Germany, the inflation rate in the same month is 7.5 percent and France is 6.1 percent. The UK has experienced double-digit inflation only three times in the past 70 years: during the Korean War in the 1950s and after the two oil price shocks in the 1970s, according to the Guardian.
The investment bank Goldman Sachs predicted a recession in the UK for the fourth quarter of 2022 – and an inflation rate at over 20 percent in the following year. The central bank sees inflation at 13 percent by December – driven in half by energy costs. The next Conservative government will wade knee-deep into a recession – and to endure three years of an economic slump ahead. People will be devastating, researchers at the University of York, argue. The study suggests that more than half of British households could have fuel poverty by the end of the year. On August 19, the National Health Service warned of an impending"humanitarian crisis" due to rapidly rising living costs.
The former superpower that only one and a half years ago ushered in the age of Global Britain in efforts to return to its former greatness, but finding itself without a Prime Minister governing the nation at the moment. The Conservative government under Johnson announced in spring that every household should receive 400 pounds. But given the magnitude of the crisis, these payments are just a drop in the ocean.
If the government must mitigate the situation, the time is now. But Britain is confronting political paralysis at such an inopportune time. Meanwhile, Johnson left it to the new prime minister to move forward on governing the UK. The two leading Conservative candidates to become prime minister, Liz Truss and Rishi Susnak, do not offer detailed answers on how they will govern. They have not explained how they will lead the country through the various crises.
Even more worrisome, reports suggest that Truss, who is widely expected to win the leadership contest, has had very little communication with the Treasury, and hasn't form a coherent plan that aligns with the Treasury's capabilities, which could result in delays in addressing the concerns of the British. Additionally, the current prime minister failed to prepare the British for the tough times ahead, despite it being his duty. His successor has to make the necessary changes. And with winter looming, there's a sense of urgency among many British.
Equally important: Britain must learn from its prior colossal mistakes. A caretaker prime minister and leadership contest is distracting from real-life issues for the population and that's a political hydra that should not transpire again.
Thomas O. Falk is a London-based political analyst and commentator. He holds a Master of Arts in international relations from the University of Birmingham and specializes in U.S. affairs.
