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In July, former U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper visited China's Taiwan region and suggested the Taiwan authorities should increase the defense budget. "If Taiwan does not strengthen its military capability, it will signal to Beijing Taiwan's lack of capabilities and resolve to defend itself," Esper said.
As always, whatever the Americans say, the political machine controlled by Tsai Ing-wen and her Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) heeds the call. On August 25, the Taiwan authorities tabled a NT$586.3 billion ($19.4 billion) draft defense budget for 2023, a 13.9 percent increase from 2022. The double-digit increase comes as Taiwan's yearly growth has remained below 4 percent since 2017. It means that in 2023, Tsai and her DPP will be spending about 2.4 percent of Taiwan's GDP on "defense."
The beneficiary of the increase would not be the residents in Taiwan, the relationship across the Taiwan Strait, or even Tsai and the DPP themselves. The biggest and most important beneficiary would be the U.S. defense contractors and China-hawk politicians.
It is common knowledge that Taiwan on its own is a military midget. The confidence behind Tsai and DPP's continued provocation against the Chinese mainland stems from the support of the United States and, more to the point, the support of U.S. weapons. Since 2016, when Tsai was elected leader of the region, she has made 25 arms deals with two successive U.S. administrations, mounting to a whopping $20 billion in total.
For the U.S. politicians looking to score political points back home by being "tough on China," Taiwan has been a favorite touring spot. In August alone, three high-profile trips have been made – one by Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, one led by Senator Ed Markey, and the most recent one by rowdy anti-China hawk Senator Marsha Blackburn, who "coincidentally" sits on the Senate Armed Services and Commerce committees.
Armed services and commerce-related American politicians must be elated, looking forward to future arms purchases from Taiwan that will bring more dollars to their sponsors in the military-industrial complex and create more jobs for their constituents – two crucial building blocks for an American politician to be re-elected.
Tsai Ing-wen thinks that feeding this hungry beast would be good for her agenda and secure her political legacy. But is she aware that its appetite is insatiable? The taxpayers whose money is being shipped to the United States don't get any benefit from it.
The real benefit to Taiwan residents is built on a peaceful and friendly cross-Strait relationships. Trade surplus between the Chinese mainland and the Taiwan region is over $100 billion a year. The mainland is Taiwan's largest trade partner, accounting for 33 percent of its total trade. In 2021, the trade volume stood at $328.3 billion. This is the relationship that would bring real economic growth and benefit to the region.
Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP are placing the bet on the wrong people. Feeding Americans might bring them an illusion of security but the United States will ditch Taiwan when things get too difficult and costly. Like it did in many other countries and regions in the world.
