中文
By Jonathan Arnott
If you pay scant attention to the complex and fascinating wranglings of geopolitics, you can be forgiven for feeling the G20 Foreign Ministers meeting seems more of the same with high-level agreements getting promoted with more fanfare than they deserve: After all, the G7 summit only recently concluded in the same manner. But the G20 is not the G7.
The G7 was a homogenous bloc, all holding to a particular shared worldview. It condemned, in the strongest possible terms, "Russia's war in Ukraine" and pushed an economic agenda designed to help Western nations recover from the combined impact of the post-pandemic economy and high oil and gas prices. By contrast, the G20 is anything but. It is fractious, so fractious in fact that Joshua Kurlantzick, senior fellow for south-east Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, described the G20 as "almost unmanageable."
Indonesia will host the G20 meeting, which holds the rotating chair; Kurlantzick said that its main hope would be to avoid a "disastrous meeting." Following a walkout at the Finance Ministers' meeting, tensions could run very high at the Foreign Ministers' meeting.
The United Kingdom's Foreign Minister, Liz Truss, has "walked out" by default. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson resigned as leader of the UK Conservative Party, and Liz Truss is returning from Bali to focus on her potential bid to become the new Prime Minister. The UK has taken one of the staunchest pro-Ukraine lines of all major global economies, and its absence will shift the balance.
Meanwhile, the United States, Canada, the European Union and its member states will remain equally strong in their condemnation of Moscow. The President of Indonesia, Joko Widodo, who holds the rotating chair, intends to focus on pragmatic concerns: How to ensure food security can be maintained despite the conflict.
A significant power bloc within the G20 holds a similar perspective: Wishing for peace without condemning Russia, and rejecting economic sanctions. With Beijing and New Delhi both taking variations on that position, China may perceive a geopolitical shift. Nations as diverse as South Africa and Saudi Arabia might move away from previous political (though not cultural in the latter case) allegiances to the "West" towards a more flexible position.
Accordingly, the Indonesian President has one eye on the full G20 summit in November. The meetings of foreign ministers are important, but it is that full summit, which will be of even greater significance. That's why he is seeking to hold some degree of cohesion in a bloc, which lacks anything to unite with. The war in Ukraine does not appear to be headed toward resolution any time soon, having entered an attritional phase in which Russia would gain ground slowly but incrementally, with both sides paying heavy costs.
In truth, the G20 meeting appears unlikely to accomplish much. There could be some minor agreement over the eradication of corruption, but that could be overlooked amid discussions over sanctions and Russia. Most nations simply desire for the meeting to be over with, without causing anymore significant problems, rather than to focus on positive achievements.
With such cynical expectations from many countries in attendance, Indonesia's theme for its presidency, "Recover together, Recover stronger" remains an aspiration, which lacks any possibility of real agreement. That's no reflection on Indonesia, but a mere statement of fact. Togetherness requires a "meeting of the minds," something, which is not the case at present.
Jonathan Arnott is a former member of the European Parliament.
