中文
By Danil Bochkov
On April 1, Chinese President Xi Jinping met with the European Council President Charles Michel and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen through video link. The Ukraine crisis became one of the main topics during their talks.
Ukraine has faced one of the worst humanitarian crises in modern history with reportedly 4 million people, according to United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, having already fled the country following Russia's month-long 'special military operation'. And these estimates are not complete, since more people could leave even after the active military phase is over due to concerns that Ukraine's economy may contract by half over the next 15 years before recovering.
And such dire consequences are not limited solely to the Ukrainian national economy, but will only aggravate the already bleak prognosis for a global economy facing its worst recession since 1991, inflation that hasn't been seen since the 1970s and flagging growth. Indeed, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development has downgraded the world's original economic growth forecast of 3.6 percent to the current 2.6 percent. Under such circumstances many countries are struggling to forestall risks for their own national economies by undertaking robust macroeconomic measures.
In early March, Chinese' Premier Li Keqiang reassured global markets of the country's confidence to hit 2022 economic growth target of 5.5 percent despite headwinds originating from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The European Central Bank (ECB) has announced an ending to its pandemic-related collateral-easing measures effective since 2020 and aimed at boosting the bloc's financial liquidity. Now ECB will effectively stop infusing money into financial markets with the next logical step expected to be an increase in interest rates this summer to curb ramping inflation.
However, before the economic measures can actually take place, peace in Ukraine is essential. As Russia and Ukraine have recently stressed that the latest round of talks, held in Turkey on March 29, offer a glimmer of hope that the resolution of the conflict may happen in the foreseeable future. China and the European Union have been repeatedly advocating a peaceful scenario for the cession of hostilities.
During the recent talks between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in China, Beijing expressed support to Russia and Ukraine in overcoming the difficulties via the peace talks. Beijing has recently hailed Russian efforts "to prevent a large-scale humanitarian crisis. China has not joined any international sanctions against Russia, which were imposed in several rounds by the U.S. and its allies.
So, all those positive signals from China to Russia place Beijing in a better position than any other side to promote a peaceful tone with Moscow. Moreover, China's Foreign Ministry has several times stressed that it is willing to mediate the Ukraine crisis. However, Beijing is unlikely to broker Russia-Ukraine reconciliation on its own, and it does not want to be dictated on how to approach the situation. As Chinese Premier Li Keqiang told EU leaders, Beijing would push for peace in "its own way." Beijing and Russia have repeatedly advocated for multilateral forums and platform as a foundation for global stability.
China, with its unique relationship with Russia, and the EU, having particular influence over Kyiv, could act as two balancers, respectively pushing Russia and Ukraine from both sides to a diplomatic solution. They could also enact multinational forums, such as G20 to thoroughly engage with Moscow over the issue. China's recent rejection of dispelling Russia from the group means that Moscow should be diplomatically involved in those talks rather than being isolated.
President Xi has underlined during China-EU summit that both Beijing and Brussels could infuse stability to a world facing a "faltering global recovery and the ongoing Ukraine crisis." Though, the peaceful treaty has not been drafted yet, Ukraine insists on security guarantees, which are among other states guaranteed by some EU countries. That could make China-European collaboration on the issue a crucial factor to a speedy resolution of the conflict.
The author is an expert with the Russian International Affairs Council. He graduated cum laude with a master's degree in economics from MGIMO-University under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia and a master's degree in world economy from the University of International Business and Economics in China.
