中文
By Thomas O. Falk
In Germany, the Social Democrats (SPD), The Green Party (Greens) and the Liberal Democrats (FDP) have found common ground to enter into a coalition government. On November 24, the three partners presented their long waited coalition contract that outlines how Germany will change over the next four years, at least.
Various domestic policy, as well as foreign policy paradigm shifts, can be found in the 178-page long paper, especially regarding the future approach to Beijing by Berlin, where Realpolitik a la Merkel already seems a distant memory.
"China" appears 12 times in the coalition paper. It shows the importance the new government seeks to attach to the country. This had already become evident during the election campaign. However, as is well known, the election campaign is different than ultimately governing. Hence, one never really knew how much the new government would deviate from Merkel's policy towards China.
Now, the answer has been given.
The coalition agreement, for example, states that while the relationship with America is to be "renewed and dynamized," the relationship with China is "to be shaped in terms of partnership, competition and systemic rivalry."
While "partnership" seems plausible, it has not gone unnoticed that China is being referred to as a systemic rival for the first time ever in a German coalition agreement.
Moreover, the government pledges to establish a "comprehensive China strategy" to be developed within the framework of the joint EU-China policy "in order to be able to realize our values and interests in the systemic rivalry with China."
Olaf Scholz is set to become Germany's new chancellor. [Photo/Xinhua]
The subject of the one-China policy is mentioned twice. The paper emphasizes that reintegration into China should only take place peacefully and with mutual consent. Hong Kong and Xinjiang-related issues are also explicitly mentioned.
All in all, one can say that the coalition is now more in line with U.S. positions than under Angela Merkel.
It is thus not a surprise that the coalition paper reaffirms the partnership with the U.S. Merkel had rejected the idea of a binary choice, i.e. either be on the U.S. side or China's in the global competition of the superpowers.
She recognized the opportunities and benefits that amicable relations with China mean for Germany and that prosperity can best be secured with Realpolitik. In addition, Merkel recognized early on during the Trump years that "the days when one could rely on others (i.e. the U.S.) are somewhat over," as she famously pontificated in a speech in 2017. Since then, the personnel in Washington have changed, but not the "America First" doctrine. The new German government does not seem to have noticed, as it is determined to return to a former status quo that no longer exists.
The Biden government will naturally take note that the priorities are changing in Germany. After all, these formulations on China are significant. What is certain is that, unlike under Merkel, China is no longer perceived as just an economic opportunity.
Of course, our world has changed dramatically in the past four years, and this development will continue. It is thus no surprise that positions of German politics also develop further. However, it is also clear that two parties are now entering the government that have not been for a long time – The Greens and the FDP need to establish themselves, create an international profile and provide new perspectives.
The Greens in particular, who will lead the foreign ministry with Annalena Baerbock as minister, are a determined party – not least due to its base that demands such an approach – and destined to implement a foreign policy guided by Western democratic values that will inevitably attempt to interfere in China's internal affairs.
But all three parties share a vision led and shaped by idealism as well as a Pax Americana 2.0, as opposed to the realism required in this new, complex world. The next four years will show what this paradigm shift will mean for Germany's prosperity and role as Europe's de facto leader.
The author is a London-based political analyst and commentator. He holds a Master of Arts in international relations from the University of Birmingham and specializes in U.S. affairs.
