How to end the vicious cycle of global military spending rise?

By Wang Junsheng, Zhao Haixin

On April 22, Sweden's Stockholm International Peace Research Institute released the latest world military expenditure data report: Last year, global defense expenditure hit a new high, reaching $2.443 trillion, an increase of 6.8 percent over 2022, the largest year-on-year increase since 2009.

Global military tensions continue to this day. This year, many major countries around the world have raised their military budgets, among which, the United States allocated $886 billion for 2024, which climbed from $618.7 billion in 2017, an increase of more than 40 percent in just seven years. Japan allocated 7.95 trillion yen ($55.9 billion), which increased 16.5 percent from last year. This is also the 10th consecutive year that Japan's defense budget has set a record.

Not only the U.S. and Japan, but other global and regional powers have also significantly increased their military spending. Russia's defense budget for fiscal year 2024 has increased to approximately $120 billion, the largest increase since the end of the Cold War; Germany's defense budget for 2024 has increased by 3.4 percent, reaching $56.5 billion; France's defense budget for this year is $49.7 billion, an increase of 7.5 percent over last year; Israel's budget is approximately $31 billion, an increase of $8.2 billion over last year.

South Korea released the "National Defense Mid-term Plan from 2024 to 2028" at the end of 2023, planning to invest approximately $270 billion in military expenditures in the next five years.

The most direct reason for the increase in U.S. military spending is to serve its great power competition, and to maintain its global hegemony. Currently, the U.S. military budget accounts for about 40 percent of the total global military expenditure, which has exceeded the combined military expenditure of the next nine countries.

The U.S. believes that its hegemonic status is affected by two factors; the first is the challenge from China. U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin pointed out in a statement that the defense budget request will "bolster our ability to defend our country, pace to the challenge posed by an increasingly aggressive People's Republic of China."

The substantial increase in military spending is expected to further strengthen its military presence and deterrence in the Asia-Pacific region, such as strengthening defense measures in Guam and Hawaii and the Pacific Deterrence Initiative.

Besides, there is the threat of geopolitical conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Gaza war. These conflicts involve the U.S. in great power competition, becoming an important reason for the U.S. administration to increase its military budget. In addition, interest groups such as the military industry have prompted the U.S. to increase military spending.

The most direct reason for Japan to increase its military spending is also the competition between great powers. Japan believes it is in "the most severe and complex security environment since the end of World War II" and is working to accelerate its defense buildup to deal with rising military "threats" posed by China, the DPRK and Russia.

In the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs' annual Diplomatic Bluebook released on April 16, China's military operations were described as posing the "biggest strategic challenge." The reason is that with China's rapid development in recent years, Japan mainly needs to compete with China for the so-called leadership in the Asia-Pacific region.

It seems that Japan's main approach to compete with China is to become a military power. To this end, Japan is abandoning its post-war principle of limiting military capabilities to self-defense and is seeking to establish more offensive military capabilities. The ongoing increase in military expenditure reflects its endeavor to enact constitutional reforms and bolster its military prowess.

In addition, geopolitical tensions such as situations in the Korean Peninsula and the Taiwan Straits, territorial disputes between Japan and Russia and the Russia-Ukraine conflicts are also a factor that promotes the increase in Japan's military expenditure.

Although the reasons for increases in military expenditures vary from country to country, they are all closely related to competition between major powers and the intensification of regional conflicts. The increase in military spending has in turn promoted competition among major powers and regional conflicts. As such, a vicious cycle has been formed, exerting a serious impact on global security.

The root cause of the above-mentioned problems lies in the attempts of major global powers to pursue so-called absolute security and unilateral security, which will inevitably lead to insecurity in other countries. The way to change this situation is to pursue cooperative security. In this regard, the principle of security indivisibility contained in the Global Security Initiative proposed by China can be a way to solve the current global security dilemma.

Wang Junsheng, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is the Director of the Department of China's Regional Strategy, National Institute of International Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Zhao Haixin, a special commentator for CGTN, is a graduate student at the School of International Politics and Economics, University of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.