Why do tensions in the South China Sea keep rising? Dr. Wu Shicun, a leading expert on maritime issues in China, joins Diplomacy Talk to break down what's happening between China, the Philippines, and the U.S.

Studying the region for over 30 years, Dr. Wu elaborates on why the Philippines' recent provocations at Ren'ai Jiao reflect the U.S. strategy to maintain influence in Southeast Asia. He addresses growing concerns about military conflict, explains why China hasn't removed the "grounded" Philippine warship, and offers his insights into Beijing's approach to regional stability. As the disputes have become increasingly complex, Dr. Wu makes the point that quick solutions are unlikely while fears of major conflict may be overblown. 

Following is the transcript of the interview.

Diplomacy Talk: This year, the Philippines has repeatedly taken provocative actions around Ren'ai Jiao and Xianbin Jiao in China's Nansha Qundao (the Nansha Islands), escalating tensions in the South China Sea. What do you believe are the primary factors driving these actions?

Wu Shicun: The Philippines' provocations have expanded from Ren'ai Jiao to Xianbin Jiao. The Philippines has even threatened a second arbitration on the South China Sea issue. While the Philippines appears to be acting alone, the U.S. is instigating it behind the scenes. I believe the main reason is the influence of the U.S. The U.S. needs the Philippines as a pawn to create turmoil in the South China Sea.

Why didn't this happen during Duterte's era? At least on the South China Sea issue, China and the Philippines had a consensus then. China doesn't accept the Philippines' claims and actions based on the so-called South China Sea arbitration ruling. But why did the Marcos Jr. administration overturn the consensus reached with China during Duterte's time? It's because the Marcos Jr. government pursues a pro-U.S. policy, so the two countries get aligned quickly.

Diplomacy Talk: You mentioned that the Philippines might initiate a second arbitration. Western media criticized China's non-acceptance of the 2016 South China Sea arbitration "award." If the Philippines initiates and wins a second arbitration, will China be isolated in the global community?

Wu Shicun: China rejected the arbitration that the Philippines unilaterally initiated in 2013 and returned the latter's diplomatic note on the compulsory arbitration procedure. The diplomatic note was sent in January, 2013, and was returned shortly in February of the same year. China did not take part in the arbitration procedure or acknowledge the ruling in 2016, which it deemed illegal and invalid.

When the arbitration "award" was announced on July 12, 2016, Western countries led by the U.S. criticized China's stance on the South China Sea issue. China maintains its position of non-acceptance and non-participation in the South China Sea Arbitration. It refuses to recognize or acknowledge the so-called award and rejects any claims or actions based on this ruling.

However, not all Western countries or countries outside the region are critical of China's policy. Many developing countries, including some Southeast Asian countries, understood China's attitude. Furthermore, China has explicitly stated that it will not implement the final "award." China's policy has withstood the test of time and has gained understanding and support from the majority of countries worldwide.

The Philippines has hinted at initiating a second arbitration, but why hasn't it taken concrete steps? In reality, it's sending out feelers to gauge the international community's reaction to potential further arbitration against China. Manila is likely assessing whether other countries would be supportive, concerned, or indifferent to such a move.

Additionally, by spreading the word, Manila aims to irritate Beijing and assess its reaction. The question isn't whether China would participate in the arbitration but rather how it might take countermeasures. For example, China could use this opportunity to remove the illegally "grounded" warship at Ren'ai Jiao. Similarly, it could take forceful action to expel the Philippines' vessel lingering at Xianbin Jiao.

Confronted with such potential countermeasures, the Philippines might conclude that a second arbitration would be counterproductive and opt against it. This suggests that Manila might be merely posturing rather than preparing for concrete action.

The critical question is: would initiating a second arbitration violate China's legitimate rights and claims in the South China Sea? If so, I believe China would take strong countermeasures, compelling the Philippines to pay a heavy price.

Diplomacy Talk: You mentioned the "grounded" warship. Some netizens have questioned why China hasn't removed it from Ren'ai Jiao. They argue that just towing it away would have eliminated all the subsequent troubles. What considerations might China have for not taking this action?

Wu Shicun: First, the warship has been "grounded" there for 25 years and is severely corroded. The Philippines has sent construction materials to repair and reinforce it, fearing it might disintegrate. Consequently, it's no longer feasible to tow it away. The vessel is incapable of sailing on its own, and any attempt to forcibly move it could cause it to break apart.

Second, there are fully armed soldiers inside the warship. How should China deal with these personnel if it were to remove the vessel? Mishandling the situation could lead to resistance, potentially triggering an armed conflict and resulting in casualties. Such an outcome would be detrimental to China-Philippines relations.

Therefore, China remains committed to resolving all South China Sea issues between China and the Philippines, including the issue of Ren'ai Jiao, through negotiation and diplomatic channels. The diplomatic means is still effective, and the diplomatic channels remain open.

Diplomacy Talk: Some people are concerned that if a conflict erupts between China and the Philippines, it might trigger the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty, potentially becoming a catalyst for World War III. Do you share similar concerns?

Wu Shicun: It's not easy for the U.S. to start a direct military confrontation or war with China. That's not a simple matter. In the event of a clash between China and the Philippines, U.S. involvement would probably be limited in scope. This measured approach makes the prospect of a "World War III" scenario highly unlikely.

Diplomacy Talk: How do other ASEAN countries view the Philippines' actions in the South China Sea, given U.S. support and encouragement?

Wu Shicun: At an international conference last October, a Singaporean scholar said that other regional countries don't consider the Philippines a typical Southeast Asian nation, as its policies lack continuity. This is a challenge hindering the development of China-Philippines relations.

Southeast Asian countries view certain Filipino politicians in a similar light. During their tenure, some Filipino politicians seek to maximize their family interests rather than prioritize enduring national interests. For example, during its six-year tenure, the Duterte administration reached a series of consensuses on the South China Sea issue with China, but the Marcos Jr. administration overturned these agreements. Imaginably, when another president assumes office in the future, some of the consensuses reached by the current administration might also be invalidated.

The U.S. is fully aware of this possibility. Why is the U.S. urgently building military bases in the Philippines? Because President Marcos Jr.'s six-year term is expected to expire in 2028, and he cannot be re-elected. If another anti-American leader like Duterte is elected, he or she might expel U.S. forces from these bases. In that case, all of its construction efforts could be in vain. The U.S. recognizes that a new government may change the Philippines' policy toward America.

We, too, should maintain a clear-eyed view of our relationship with the Philippines, recognizing the potential for policy shifts.

Diplomacy Talk: China has demonstrated great wisdom in addressing major issues. For instance, it proposed the "one country, two systems" concept to resolve the questions of Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao. Regarding a host of maritime disputes, China advocates "shelving disputes and engaging in joint development." Do you believe this principle is effective in managing the South China Sea issue? What progress has been made so far?

Wu Shicun: China's proposition of "shelving disputes and engaging in joint development" aims for peace. The South China Sea issue is uniquely complex, involving multiple countries, a big number of disputed islands and reefs, and overlapping claims of vast maritime areas. Resolving such a complex issue quickly is impossible. Temporarily setting aside disputes remains the only feasible approach. All countries need resources, and the South China Sea's environment and fishery resources require the protection of all nations involved. The South China Sea is a shared home for the countries in the region, and no one benefits from its environmental degradation.

In light of this, China has proposed joint development in regions with resource disputes. As a peace-loving country, China signals to the world its commitment to resolving disputes through peaceful means and temporarily setting aside those that cannot be immediately resolved.

Diplomacy Talk: In recent years, have there been any significant shifts in China's policies or actions regarding the South China Sea?

Wu Shicun: China remains committed to resolving the South China Sea issue with claimant states through peaceful means and negotiation. It continues to promote joint development and maritime cooperation while disputes are pending resolution.

However, the South China Sea disputes have become increasingly complex. The U.S. has become involved, and its South China Sea policy is no longer neutral. The negative impact of the South China Sea arbitration "award" has further complicated the matters. Consequently, the South China Sea issue has spilled over from the political and diplomatic realm of territorial disputes into the domains of security and legal issues.

Hence, China has also adjusted its policy and actions regarding the South China Sea. While committed to resolving the South China Sea issue through negotiation and maintaining regional peace and stability, China must also defend its rights and claims in the region. China's construction on islands and reefs in the South China Sea, its subsequent facility deployment, the promulgation of China's Coast Guard Law, and its regulations on administrative law-enforcement procedures for coast guard agencies — which came into force on June 15 this year — all aim to strengthen China's ability to safeguard its legitimate rights and claims in the South China Sea. Additionally, China is striving for regional peace and stability by expediting the development of comprehensive regulations.

This forms a "three-pronged approach": establishing regulations, fostering maritime cooperation, and enhancing China's capacity to protect its rights. Resolving the South China Sea issue requires robust measures, not just diplomatic rhetoric.

Diplomacy Talk: Regarding national security issues, President Xi Jinping said: "We must be prepared to deal with worst-case scenarios, and be ready to withstand high winds, choppy waters, and even dangerous storms." How do you interpret these "dangerous storms?" Do you foresee China facing such perilous situations in the South China Sea?

Wu Shicun: We're unlikely to see "dangerous storms" in the South China Sea, but small waves or periodic typhoons with partial large waves are possible.

The U.S. wants to create some disorder in the South China Sea, but not total chaos. It hopes that the Philippines will continue to cause trouble, allowing Washington to claim that the Philippines' security, especially in the South China Sea, is threatened by China. Consequently, Washington promises to protect Manila in exchange for the latter's obedience. This is what the U.S. needs. However, the U.S. also doesn't allow the Philippines to go too far in challenging China's rights and claims in the South China Sea.

I believe China has its red lines. If those lines are crossed regarding our rights in the South China Sea, we must take action.

Diplomacy Talk: For one of my final questions, I'd like you to look ahead to the future of the South China Sea issue. How will it develop in the coming years? Will it be properly resolved in the future?

Wu Shicun: I've been studying the South China Sea issue for over 30 years. I don't expect to see a proper resolution of the issue in my lifetime, nor do I expect the next generation to, because the issue cannot be resolved in the short term. We should prepare for long-lasting disputes over the South China Sea. It's unrealistic to expect the disputes to be resolved once and for all, with peace and calm prevailing. We must not have such illusions.

Moreover, the legal battle is intensifying. The negative impact of the first arbitration still lingers, causing spillover effects. In fact, the South China Sea arbitration "award" is the root cause of the current dispute. It hasn't brought peace to the region. Without the "award," the South China Sea situation might be much calmer than it is now.

Diplomacy Talk: So, Dr. Wu, are you suggesting that the South China Sea issue wasn't inherently as serious, but the tampering of countries outside the region has escalated tensions?

Wu Shicun: Indeed, the South China Sea issue is already complex. External powers, led by the U.S., have meddled in the matter. Japan has also entered the fray, a development that cannot be overlooked. Japan's tampering may pose an even greater threat to China's claims and rights in the South China Sea than that of the U.S.

Foreign meddlings have worsened the South China Sea situation, causing more serious negative impacts. This has increasingly challenged China in the areas of its maritime rights protection, legal efforts, rule-making, and even discourse building.

Regarding discourse power, China is, in fact, a victim of the South China Sea issue. China's sovereignty over the South China Sea Islands is established in the course of history. During World War II, from 1939 to 1945, Japan illegally occupied these islands. After the war, China regained control over the islands based on the Cairo Declaration and Potsdam Proclamation. Therefore, there's an international consensus, backed by treaties, supporting China's ownership of the Xisha and Nansha Islands. China is the real victim in the current situation.

As China defends its rights against actions by the Philippines, the U.S., and other countries, the struggle and competition will intensify. Looking ahead, I foresee that the South China Sea issue will be prolonged, with intensifying legal battles and more acute maritime conflicts. This is my outlook on the future of the South China Sea situation.

Presenter: Wang Xiaohui

Producer: Li Xiaohua

Production supervisor: Zhang Liying

Editors: Zhang Ruomeng, Zhang Heling, Jiao Yuan, Lyu Yiyi, Xia Fangting

Produced by chinadiplomacy.org.cn